A New Canada to Fight for Our Survival

Patrick Gossage • December 29, 2025
Canadian flag with a red maple leaf in the center, and red and white vertical bars.

There has been nothing like the mobilization of our country since we went to war against Hitler “for King and Country.” Now we are mobilizing in a new war against Trump’s depredations with renewed patriotic fervour. Our building a resilient sovereignty against the word’s most irrational and powerful regime - who believe we have no right to exist - will require an enormous

dedicated and concentrated effort to redefine our nation. .

 

Make no mistake. We are not seen as important in Washington, a lesson I learned as the Minister of Information at our embassy in the Reagan years. Like Trump’s disparaging attitude to Justin Trudeau, Reagan had little use for his crusading father, Pierre Ytudeau. The difference is that with Prime Minister Brian Mulroneyr Reagan actually became a key figure in establishing the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed in 1988.

 

Ironically, it is precisely the success of this pact that led to 75% of our trade going to the US, a dangerous dependence which is now under extreme threat. The future of the successor to the FTA is at dtake. The US Canada Mexico Agreement (USMCA) is about to be renegotiated and is by no means secure.

 

Bilateral trade discussions on the sectorial tariffs that are destroying our steel, automobile, aluminum and lumber industries were going well but were cancelled on October 23 after Trump, in a fit of pique was annoyed by Ontario TV ads using a Reagan clip to decry tariffs. Prime Minister Carney clings to the hope that these issues will be addressed in the context of the USMCA talks. They are supposed to begin in January. We live in hope.

 

Make no mistake. Trump recently suggested that USMCA’s future was not certain. His strong belief that Canada would be better as a US state _ “and there would be no tariffs” – seems unshakeable.

 

Perhaps the most striking evidence of what low repute Canada is held in the White House comes from Vice President Vance. He has publicly criticized Canada's our generous immigration policies, blaming them for the country's "stagnating" living standards and referring to our approach as "immigration insanity". Vance pointed to a chart from IceCap Asset Management showing that Canada's GDP per capita growth has fallen behind that of the U.S. and the U.K. in recent years. He argues this stagnation is a direct result of Canada's approach to immigration and not U.S. trade policies. He specifically targeted Canada's multiculturalism model, contrasting it with the U.S. "melting pot". Vance claimed that "no nation has leaned more into 'diversity is our strength’... immigration insanity “ than Canada".


The White House recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) which also note how immigrants can destroy our democracies. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist signaled this: “It cites activities by our sister European democracies that “undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence. “‘Should present trends continue,” it goes on, “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.” These views are totally inimical to Canadian values.



As is this, Trump’s  most outrageous recent anti- immigrant outburst as reported by NBC : “For a second day in a row, President Donald Trump launched into a hate-filled rant against Somalia and Somali immigrants living in the US, saying they’ve “destroyed Minnesota” and “our country.” Minnesota, Trump said, is “a hellhole” right now. “The Somalians should be out of here. They’ve destroyed our country.“


The NSC also can affect Canada in its focus on the Western hemisphere. an area to be dominated by US interests. The US will secure critical supply chains in its own interests; and insists on the right of the US to have access to “strategically important locations.” The US National Security Council is to identify strategic points and resources in the Western hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners. Obviously, Canada as a source of critical minerals, will be under US scrutiny.


Some observers fear that Trump wants Canada to become a “vassal state”. A December Toronto Star editorial states coldly that “Thanks to Donald Trump, we know that nothing about our country is guaranteed anymore, not our sovereignty, our democracy, our prosperity.”

 

We now know the Canadian policies standing in the way of a new USMCA agreement. US Trade representative Jamieson Greer said our online Streaming Act, which will make profitable US streaming services support Canadian programming is a major irritant as is our sacrosanct  supply management regime for dairy and poultry products. These both are very difficult bargaining chips for Canada to play.

 

Trump’s love affair with tariffs is unlikely to subside so Canadian products may continue to be frozen out of the US. Prime Minister Carney’s ambitious strategy of finding alternate markets for these may work. And his new policy framework for rebuilding a successful economy, major infrastructure projects and attracting important foreign investment is a significant redefinition of our national political priorities. He enjoys wide public support for his strategy which also receives good business and media support.

 

There is already some optimism about the economy in 2026 - take Bank of Montreal’s recent outlook paper: “We’re looking for a stronger economy in 2026 than 2025. Consumer spending has helped prop up the economy. The “Buy Canadian” campaign has helped, and more people are travelling closer to home. Also, there’s no question that federal government spending has also supported economic growth. As we move into the latter part of the year—boosted by firmer economic growth and lower population growth—we expect the unemployment rate to fall in the second half.

 

“Canada’s position in the trade dispute isn’t as bad as it appeared earlier in the year. The average Us tariff rate on imports of Canadian goods is between 6% and 7%, compared to the 17% rate the U.S. charges the rest of the world on average. (these rates are goods under the existing CUSMA) Sectorial tariffs are heavily focused on certain targeted industries, such as steel and aluminum, lumber, and auto imports and non-USMCA auto parts. These are important sectors, but they represent a relatively narrow slice of the economy. “ 


In addition there is good news on the overall trade front. Canada’s trade swung to a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September 2025 from a C$6.3 billion deficit the month before and well above expectations for a C$4.5 billion deficit, Exports rose 6.3 C$ 64.231 billion, the largest monthly increase since February. Nine of 11 product sections posted gains. Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports jumped 22.7% driven by a 30.2% surge in unwrought gold; aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 23.4% and crude oil exports climbed 5.8%. We just may have a more resilient economy than we thought.


Nevertheless, we cannot count on Trump agreeing to a new trade regime that is as good as the original NAFTA – and the cost of reducing tariffs on key sectors may be too high, Trump’s love for tariffs and distain for us won’t change. We can only hope that a smart, well connected and determined Prime Minister can rebuild an economy that will be immune to the vagaries of our neighbour. 

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Immigration – Too much of a Good Thing

By Patrick Gossage • September 17, 2025
Welcoming newcomers, especially those fleeing wars, has been a widely accepted Canadian virtue. Now, after 25 years of a very open door. there is increasing evidence that we have too much of a good thing. And admittedly, it has been pre-PM Carney Liberal policies which have us in this situation. Where we are now was exemplified by PM Carney recently at the caucus retreat in Edmonton where said recent levels have not been "sustainable" and a more "focused" approach is required. "It's clear that we must improve our overall immigration policies," he said. It had been easy to be caught up in Justin Trudeau’s unabashed enthusiasm for high immigration levels exemplified by his warm personal welcome of the first Syrian refugees in December, 2015. On the fifth anniversary of his memorable event he happily announced: “In the years since, the Government of Canada has worked closely with Canadians, the business community, and civil society to resettle nearly 73,000 Syrian refugees in more than 350 communities across the country.” Few questioned our generosity and thousands of ordinary Canadians sponsored families. But opening our doors wide soon got out of control. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or almost one-quarter (23.0%) of the population, were, or had been, a landed immigrant. Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, representing the highest annual population growth rate since the post-war boom of 1957. Immigration now accounts for virtually all of Canada’s net labour force growth. It then became of public concern that temporary residents, including record numbers of temporary workers and foreign students accounted for 3 million of that number. In total, since 2015 we admitted 15 million temporary foreign workers in agriculture, hospitality and some manufacturing and processing jobs. They were seen to be exploited with lower wages and few rights. Foreign students with limits on hours they could work swelled these huge numbers. Inevitably, public support for high immigration levels dramatically flipped, where 58% of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. An Environics Poll in 2024 showed that f or the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year . Canadians’ express concerns about the arrival of so many newcomers contributing to the country’s problems with housing availability and affordability; this view is much more prominent than a year ago. Immigrants placing pressure on public finances, taking jobs from other Canadians, over-population, and insufficient screening are less prominent. Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The new Carney government took action, gradually reducing permanent resident admissions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027; introducing caps for temporary residents, including students and workers at 673,650 in 2025, a notable decrease in new international student admissions with only 163,000 new study permits projected for early 2025. This has led to serious financial shortfalls in many post-secondary institutions. There will be a decline in the overall Canadian population in 2025 and 2026 due to the projected outflows of temporary residents.The number of new temporary residents arriving in the country — made up of international students, foreign workers and refugee claimants — declined in the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period last year. These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system. In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750. Accommodating the needs of refugees for resettlement and shelter has become a major issue and embarrassment. In the summer of 2023 many asylum seekers in Toronto ended up sleeping on the street. What a way to welcome them to Canada! Since September 2021, the number of refugee claimants housed in Toronto shelters has increased more than tenfold, from 530 per night to a peak of almost 6,500 per night by August 2024. Recently there were about 3,500 refugee claimants in the system, about 40 per cent of all clients. The mayor recently wrote a letter warning that Carney’s government had agreed to cover only 26 per cent of Toronto’s estimated costs for housing asylum seekers in its shelter system this year. Refugees are a federal responsibility, yet reduction in federal support leaves the municipality $107 million short. We still welcome asylum claimants unreservedly. From January-June 2015 over 57,000. The leader of the Official Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, is now determined to make immigration a major political issue. He is calling for a tougher stance, saying he wants to see "very hard caps" on the number of newcomers allowed into the country. Poilievre says the country has struggled to integrate newcomers and he wants to see more people leaving than coming in "while we catch up." "We have millions of people whose permits will expire over the next couple of years, and many of them will leave," he said. "We need more people leaving than coming for the next couple of years. He would scrap the Temporary Foreign workers program altogether. BC Premier David Eby also calls for the end of Canada's temporary foreign worker program — blaming Ottawa's flawed immigration policies for filling up homeless shelters and food banks. "The temporary foreign worker program is not working. It should be cancelled or significantly reformed," Eby said. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can't have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,“ Despite these concerns, there is a bedrock of strong support for immigration which was manifested recently in Torontonians where over 150 teachers,.labour union members and families organized a noisy counter demonstration against about 50 right wing flag waving Canada Fist anti-immigrant demonstrators. They chanted “there is no space for hate at Christie Pits”, the site of the clash which led to many arrests. Torontonians enjoy the benefits of living, the world’s most multicultural city with its amazing variety of foods and cultures, and daily evidence from immigrants that their children are doing very well, thank you. But we await the end of the hopelessness that is apparently part of the lives of so many new arrivals, particularly refugees, and the needless exploitation of many other newcomers in menial and low paying jobs..

Deciphering the Canada/US tariff wars

By Patrick Gossage • August 12, 2025
1. Negatives - The sad truth about missing the August 1 deadline: Trump on July 31, 2025: ”We haven’t spoken to Canada today. He’s called.” Carney could not get through! Obviously, the President of Mexico did and got a 90 day reprieve. He may speak with Carney this week but clearly the PM’s relationship isn’t what we thought. Trump:: ”(Canda} has been very poorly led….Canda has treated US farmers “very badly” (our apparently untouchable dairy and poultry supply management regime remains a major irritant.). He still believes there is a “huge flow of fentanyl from Canada to the US that has to be stopped.” Trump said earlier he hasn’t “had “a lot of luck with Canada,” and reaching a deal wasn’t a priority for his administration. In addition, Trump intensified his trade war with Canada with A35% tariff just ahead of the August 1 deadline for an agreement, saying it would be "very hard" to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood. “ Ford among others has called all along for a tougher approach and dollar for dollar reciprocal tariffs on US goods coming to Canda – which the White House dislikes claiming only Canada and China are imposing these tariffs. A recent Angus Reid poll suggests the proportion of those advising the PM and his team to “play hardball” has increased, from 63 to 69 per cent of the population compared to mid-July. Recently Carney has prepared us to accept there will be no deal without tariffs. In March he predicted “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back,” On August 5 he said the focus now will be to preserve and reinforce CUSMA ahead of next year’s negotiations, adding “There’s a bigger picture there. Sounds like buying time? One journalist’s – Matt Guerny’sjudgment on Carney’s performance: “…the central conceit of the federal election three months ago was that we faced an unprecedented crisis requiring an unprecedented response…The Liberals made the case — and voters agreed — that Carney was the man to lead Canada’s emergency effort….But I will blame Carney for not doing the things that he can do, as fast as he can do them, and that very much includes moving fast enough to harden this country so that we can better withstand geopolitical and economic threats … threats like an erratic and unpredictable U.S. president.”. 2. Positives Government’s plan B: Carney - “Canada, we are in charge of our future. We can build a strong economy that doesn't depend on the United States. We can be masters in our own house.” Bill C5 envisions huge national infrastructure projects: “It’s time to unite this country and invest in nation-building infrastructure on a scale not seen in generations. Major nation-building projects will connect Canada and grow the economy in ways that last for generations, such as the Port of Churchill, hydrogen production in Edmonton, seizing vast solar potential in Cowessess, high-speed rail that starts with Windsor to Québec City, and a trade corridor to Grays Bay in Nunavut, amongst others.” However, we are still wiring for a major project to be green lit under the Build Canada Act. 50% Steel and Aluminum tariffs backfiring: GM and Ford announced billion-dollar losses and Ford’s best-selling aluminum body F150 pickup severely affected by aluminum tariffs. This noted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent: “We will be negotiating with Canada on those.” Canadians deciding to not travel to US -and US alcohol being taken off Liquor Board shelves in provinces (except Sask and Alberta having an impact. This is "worse than tariffs", the boss of Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman says. Statistics Canada reporting a "steep decline" in Canadian travel to the U.S., particularly by land, and a -notable, drop in air travel. Big US coverage of impact on business in affected states. Leverage of Canadian rare earths and energy: Canada is a major energy exporter to the United States, particularly for oil, natural gas, and electricity. Canada supplies a significant portion of the US's crude oil, natural gas, and electricity imports. Specifically, Canada provides 60% of the crude oil and close to 100% of the natural gas imported by the U.S. Additionally, Canada supplies 85% of the electricity imported by the U.S. Canadian reciprocal counter tariffs: On March 3 2025 Trudeau announced a slew of retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and other goods entering Canada: Outlining the tiny amounts of Fentanyl crossing the border and investments in enhancing border security, he added : “Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered. Should American tariffs come into effect tonight, Canada will, effective tomorrow, respond with 25 per cent tariffs against $155 billion of American goods – starting with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days’ time. Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn.” August 4 th Carney said he may consider removing some. They have had an immediate impact on Canadian households. Tariffs hitting US consumers Proctor and Gamble announced last week it would raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods. Other manufacturers, from Porsche to Nestle to Adidas have announced the same thing. As have Walmart and Amazon which has raised prices on over 1200 items. Andrew Coyne on one sector Trump cannot control: “The Markets may be nevertheless prove to be Mr. Trump’s most implacable opponents.”
More Posts