Get Ready: Unhappy Years Ahead

Patrick Gossage • October 7, 2024

If you think the childish behavior of our politicians, lack of respect the world has for Canada, the huge gulf that yawns between progressives and right-wing believers, the polarizing hate and anger that infect political discourse here and the unheard-of disconnect between the national government and the people is a passing phenomenon, think again. Canada is in for a period of political and social disruption for the long haul.

First and foremost is the unbelievable spectacle of parliament, reduced to nonstop slogan shouting and personal mudslinging as never before. Facing an empty policy opposition determined to force an “Axe the Tax” election, and a dangerously unpopular Prime Minister fighting back for the runway to save his political life, our democracy has degenerated into a kindergarten of brawling kids that, as one observer pointed out, could only be tamed by a good kindergarten teacher. An anticipated early election would simply amplify this behavior. The deep antipathy the parties have for each other will make this the meanest election ever.


It is predictable that we will remain in an era of very deep divisions for some time to come. A recent Angus Reid Institute poll showed that ‘Extremism’ and ‘polarization’ have become common terms framing the discussion of Canada’s political scene. Many right-leaning Canadians see this as a fight between good and evil. As federal political parties take turns labelling the other as extremists, there is widespread belief that political options are abandoning the middle. The Angus Reid study found one-in-three (36%) Canadians believe “all the political parties are too extreme

in their views”. Approaching half (47%) of those who place themselves in the middle of the political spectrum say they “feel like a political orphan”, making them the most likely to hold this view.


Meanwhile, the government bravely tries to eke out modest policy solutions to help economically challenged Canadians, such as recently extending mortgage payback to 30 years. Its Ministers harp back to accomplishments such as the Canada Child benefit which has lifted 450,000 kids out of poverty and $10 a day childcare, and the more recent Canadian Dental Care Plan. These positive Liberal measures fall on deaf ears, as does the fact that 80% of Canadians make more in rebates than the national carbon pricing regime costs them. The PM puts on a good face while he and his party slip below the NDP in voter intention in English Canada, and the Bloc threatens the Liberals in Quebec. We have never seen the level of vitriol directed at our unpopular PM with trucks bearing the f____ Trudeau often seen and shouting crowds dogging his appearances, to the extent his public plans are kept secret until the last moment. This is unprecedented.


Now, with regular Conservative non-confidence motions being proposed, it seems only a matter of time before we have an earlier election than expected, when the NDP had an agreement not to defeat the government. Captain Trudeau will then sink with the Liberal ship, which has hit a rock and is going down, unwilling to make the big changes which alone might revive their fortunes. Also there will unlikely be time for him to gracefully bow out and for the Liberals to elect a new leader. In any case, as one former speechwriter of his said, he could hear him saying “we’re not

changing course at the 11 th hour just because of some really bad polls.”


So, one likely result is that Trudeau resigns only after a defeat at the polls, and a subsequent convention produces a new leader who does not wear the defeat. This is probably more desirable for rebuilding the Liberal brand than having a new leader coming out of a bad electoral defeat. But what kind of a political situation under Poliviere with a weakened Liberal opposition can we expect? The major issues that beset Canada are unlikely to go away. If, as the conservatives constantly claim, all Canada’s woes land at the door of Trudeau, will getting rid of him miraculously turn things

around? Come on.


“Axe the carbon tax” is the rallying cry for an election, with it being claimed that its further imposition will cause an economic “nuclear winter”. Getting rid of it will not solve anything but will make Canada look like a climate-change chump in the eyes on many of our allies. “Axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime and bring it home” are the “common sense” slogans he will operate on. Closer to an election – which could be a few weeks away – we are promised some meat on these bare bones. Nothing yet.


We remain an embarrassment to NATO in staying so far from our commitments at a time when the war in Ukraine’s stalemate haunts us all. We have no clear idea whether a Conservative government would invest more in defense beyond his office saying they would “work toward” meeting the NATO commitment. So, the damage to our international reputation will continue for many years.


As will our inability to meet the huge increase in demand for housing. CHMC estimates that nearly 3.5 million homes need to be added between 2021 and and 2031. Dream on.  Desjardins’ economists concluded in a recent paper that the “fire hose” of Liberal government measures to boost home-building will not really have a major impact on the supply of homes – and therefore home prices – for three or four years. “What Canadians

want are policies that will increase incomes or make it easier to buy a home”, Greg Lyle president of Innovative Research Group recently told the CBC. “None of those things get solved in four months or maybe even four years.” A CIBC report released last spring found 76 per cent of Canadians who aren’t homeowners feel entry into the housing market is out of reach. A grim outlook, for young people especially. Poliviere announced his plan to increase housing last fall by making cities responsible for increasing the number of homes built by 15 per cent each year — a rate that he said might alleviate the housing crunch. Local governments that failed to meet that target would see their federal grants withheld. The plan

was immediately slammed by Canada’s mayors.


Meanwhile new housing starts have slowed despite new government funding. In spite of Canada's growing population, the CMHC confirmed that housing starts decreased by 9 per cent in June, 2024. On top of this, when compared to June of 2023, housing starts last month had decreased by 13 percent. Lower supply for higher demand. Not good. As for affordable housing the 2023 budget failed to address a crisis that is leading to more homelessness than Canadian communities have ever experienced.


There is little good news when we look at Canada’s overall economic prospects. Our low productivity has been called an “emergency” by the Bank of Canada. According to the latest data available from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Canada ranks 29 th among 38 OECD countries in labor productivity. despite being one of the best countries in the world to live in. Canada's workforce is among the most educated in the world but quarterly data published by StatsCan in June 2024 confirms Canadian workers are continuing to underperform compared to our neighbors to the south. "If we don't address productivity and start doing it very quickly ...our living standards — in relative terms to some of the more successful countries in the world — will continue to decline," Derek Holt, vice president and head of capital markets

economics at Scotiabank told CBC recently. Lower productivity also diminishes Canada's competitiveness and makes it more difficult to bring inflation under control, "because essentially workers are getting paid more for producing less," he said. So far no federal party has seen fit to address this basic issue facing the Canadian economy.


A polarized disputatious country with little ability to solve our most serious economic issues in the medium term. Unhappy days ahead indeed.


Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Immigration – Too much of a Good Thing

By Patrick Gossage • September 17, 2025
Welcoming newcomers, especially those fleeing wars, has been a widely accepted Canadian virtue. Now, after 25 years of a very open door. there is increasing evidence that we have too much of a good thing. And admittedly, it has been pre-PM Carney Liberal policies which have us in this situation. Where we are now was exemplified by PM Carney recently at the caucus retreat in Edmonton where said recent levels have not been "sustainable" and a more "focused" approach is required. "It's clear that we must improve our overall immigration policies," he said. It had been easy to be caught up in Justin Trudeau’s unabashed enthusiasm for high immigration levels exemplified by his warm personal welcome of the first Syrian refugees in December, 2015. On the fifth anniversary of his memorable event he happily announced: “In the years since, the Government of Canada has worked closely with Canadians, the business community, and civil society to resettle nearly 73,000 Syrian refugees in more than 350 communities across the country.” Few questioned our generosity and thousands of ordinary Canadians sponsored families. But opening our doors wide soon got out of control. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or almost one-quarter (23.0%) of the population, were, or had been, a landed immigrant. Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, representing the highest annual population growth rate since the post-war boom of 1957. Immigration now accounts for virtually all of Canada’s net labour force growth. It then became of public concern that temporary residents, including record numbers of temporary workers and foreign students accounted for 3 million of that number. In total, since 2015 we admitted 15 million temporary foreign workers in agriculture, hospitality and some manufacturing and processing jobs. They were seen to be exploited with lower wages and few rights. Foreign students with limits on hours they could work swelled these huge numbers. Inevitably, public support for high immigration levels dramatically flipped, where 58% of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. An Environics Poll in 2024 showed that f or the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year . Canadians’ express concerns about the arrival of so many newcomers contributing to the country’s problems with housing availability and affordability; this view is much more prominent than a year ago. Immigrants placing pressure on public finances, taking jobs from other Canadians, over-population, and insufficient screening are less prominent. Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The new Carney government took action, gradually reducing permanent resident admissions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027; introducing caps for temporary residents, including students and workers at 673,650 in 2025, a notable decrease in new international student admissions with only 163,000 new study permits projected for early 2025. This has led to serious financial shortfalls in many post-secondary institutions. There will be a decline in the overall Canadian population in 2025 and 2026 due to the projected outflows of temporary residents.The number of new temporary residents arriving in the country — made up of international students, foreign workers and refugee claimants — declined in the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period last year. These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system. In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750. Accommodating the needs of refugees for resettlement and shelter has become a major issue and embarrassment. In the summer of 2023 many asylum seekers in Toronto ended up sleeping on the street. What a way to welcome them to Canada! Since September 2021, the number of refugee claimants housed in Toronto shelters has increased more than tenfold, from 530 per night to a peak of almost 6,500 per night by August 2024. Recently there were about 3,500 refugee claimants in the system, about 40 per cent of all clients. The mayor recently wrote a letter warning that Carney’s government had agreed to cover only 26 per cent of Toronto’s estimated costs for housing asylum seekers in its shelter system this year. Refugees are a federal responsibility, yet reduction in federal support leaves the municipality $107 million short. We still welcome asylum claimants unreservedly. From January-June 2015 over 57,000. The leader of the Official Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, is now determined to make immigration a major political issue. He is calling for a tougher stance, saying he wants to see "very hard caps" on the number of newcomers allowed into the country. Poilievre says the country has struggled to integrate newcomers and he wants to see more people leaving than coming in "while we catch up." "We have millions of people whose permits will expire over the next couple of years, and many of them will leave," he said. "We need more people leaving than coming for the next couple of years. He would scrap the Temporary Foreign workers program altogether. BC Premier David Eby also calls for the end of Canada's temporary foreign worker program — blaming Ottawa's flawed immigration policies for filling up homeless shelters and food banks. "The temporary foreign worker program is not working. It should be cancelled or significantly reformed," Eby said. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can't have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,“ Despite these concerns, there is a bedrock of strong support for immigration which was manifested recently in Torontonians where over 150 teachers,.labour union members and families organized a noisy counter demonstration against about 50 right wing flag waving Canada Fist anti-immigrant demonstrators. They chanted “there is no space for hate at Christie Pits”, the site of the clash which led to many arrests. Torontonians enjoy the benefits of living, the world’s most multicultural city with its amazing variety of foods and cultures, and daily evidence from immigrants that their children are doing very well, thank you. But we await the end of the hopelessness that is apparently part of the lives of so many new arrivals, particularly refugees, and the needless exploitation of many other newcomers in menial and low paying jobs..

Deciphering the Canada/US tariff wars

By Patrick Gossage • August 12, 2025
1. Negatives - The sad truth about missing the August 1 deadline: Trump on July 31, 2025: ”We haven’t spoken to Canada today. He’s called.” Carney could not get through! Obviously, the President of Mexico did and got a 90 day reprieve. He may speak with Carney this week but clearly the PM’s relationship isn’t what we thought. Trump:: ”(Canda} has been very poorly led….Canda has treated US farmers “very badly” (our apparently untouchable dairy and poultry supply management regime remains a major irritant.). He still believes there is a “huge flow of fentanyl from Canada to the US that has to be stopped.” Trump said earlier he hasn’t “had “a lot of luck with Canada,” and reaching a deal wasn’t a priority for his administration. In addition, Trump intensified his trade war with Canada with A35% tariff just ahead of the August 1 deadline for an agreement, saying it would be "very hard" to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood. “ Ford among others has called all along for a tougher approach and dollar for dollar reciprocal tariffs on US goods coming to Canda – which the White House dislikes claiming only Canada and China are imposing these tariffs. A recent Angus Reid poll suggests the proportion of those advising the PM and his team to “play hardball” has increased, from 63 to 69 per cent of the population compared to mid-July. Recently Carney has prepared us to accept there will be no deal without tariffs. In March he predicted “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back,” On August 5 he said the focus now will be to preserve and reinforce CUSMA ahead of next year’s negotiations, adding “There’s a bigger picture there. Sounds like buying time? One journalist’s – Matt Guerny’sjudgment on Carney’s performance: “…the central conceit of the federal election three months ago was that we faced an unprecedented crisis requiring an unprecedented response…The Liberals made the case — and voters agreed — that Carney was the man to lead Canada’s emergency effort….But I will blame Carney for not doing the things that he can do, as fast as he can do them, and that very much includes moving fast enough to harden this country so that we can better withstand geopolitical and economic threats … threats like an erratic and unpredictable U.S. president.”. 2. Positives Government’s plan B: Carney - “Canada, we are in charge of our future. We can build a strong economy that doesn't depend on the United States. We can be masters in our own house.” Bill C5 envisions huge national infrastructure projects: “It’s time to unite this country and invest in nation-building infrastructure on a scale not seen in generations. Major nation-building projects will connect Canada and grow the economy in ways that last for generations, such as the Port of Churchill, hydrogen production in Edmonton, seizing vast solar potential in Cowessess, high-speed rail that starts with Windsor to Québec City, and a trade corridor to Grays Bay in Nunavut, amongst others.” However, we are still wiring for a major project to be green lit under the Build Canada Act. 50% Steel and Aluminum tariffs backfiring: GM and Ford announced billion-dollar losses and Ford’s best-selling aluminum body F150 pickup severely affected by aluminum tariffs. This noted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent: “We will be negotiating with Canada on those.” Canadians deciding to not travel to US -and US alcohol being taken off Liquor Board shelves in provinces (except Sask and Alberta having an impact. This is "worse than tariffs", the boss of Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman says. Statistics Canada reporting a "steep decline" in Canadian travel to the U.S., particularly by land, and a -notable, drop in air travel. Big US coverage of impact on business in affected states. Leverage of Canadian rare earths and energy: Canada is a major energy exporter to the United States, particularly for oil, natural gas, and electricity. Canada supplies a significant portion of the US's crude oil, natural gas, and electricity imports. Specifically, Canada provides 60% of the crude oil and close to 100% of the natural gas imported by the U.S. Additionally, Canada supplies 85% of the electricity imported by the U.S. Canadian reciprocal counter tariffs: On March 3 2025 Trudeau announced a slew of retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and other goods entering Canada: Outlining the tiny amounts of Fentanyl crossing the border and investments in enhancing border security, he added : “Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered. Should American tariffs come into effect tonight, Canada will, effective tomorrow, respond with 25 per cent tariffs against $155 billion of American goods – starting with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days’ time. Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn.” August 4 th Carney said he may consider removing some. They have had an immediate impact on Canadian households. Tariffs hitting US consumers Proctor and Gamble announced last week it would raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods. Other manufacturers, from Porsche to Nestle to Adidas have announced the same thing. As have Walmart and Amazon which has raised prices on over 1200 items. Andrew Coyne on one sector Trump cannot control: “The Markets may be nevertheless prove to be Mr. Trump’s most implacable opponents.”
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