Get Ready: Unhappy Years Ahead

Patrick Gossage • October 7, 2024

If you think the childish behavior of our politicians, lack of respect the world has for Canada, the huge gulf that yawns between progressives and right-wing believers, the polarizing hate and anger that infect political discourse here and the unheard-of disconnect between the national government and the people is a passing phenomenon, think again. Canada is in for a period of political and social disruption for the long haul.

First and foremost is the unbelievable spectacle of parliament, reduced to nonstop slogan shouting and personal mudslinging as never before. Facing an empty policy opposition determined to force an “Axe the Tax” election, and a dangerously unpopular Prime Minister fighting back for the runway to save his political life, our democracy has degenerated into a kindergarten of brawling kids that, as one observer pointed out, could only be tamed by a good kindergarten teacher. An anticipated early election would simply amplify this behavior. The deep antipathy the parties have for each other will make this the meanest election ever.


It is predictable that we will remain in an era of very deep divisions for some time to come. A recent Angus Reid Institute poll showed that ‘Extremism’ and ‘polarization’ have become common terms framing the discussion of Canada’s political scene. Many right-leaning Canadians see this as a fight between good and evil. As federal political parties take turns labelling the other as extremists, there is widespread belief that political options are abandoning the middle. The Angus Reid study found one-in-three (36%) Canadians believe “all the political parties are too extreme

in their views”. Approaching half (47%) of those who place themselves in the middle of the political spectrum say they “feel like a political orphan”, making them the most likely to hold this view.


Meanwhile, the government bravely tries to eke out modest policy solutions to help economically challenged Canadians, such as recently extending mortgage payback to 30 years. Its Ministers harp back to accomplishments such as the Canada Child benefit which has lifted 450,000 kids out of poverty and $10 a day childcare, and the more recent Canadian Dental Care Plan. These positive Liberal measures fall on deaf ears, as does the fact that 80% of Canadians make more in rebates than the national carbon pricing regime costs them. The PM puts on a good face while he and his party slip below the NDP in voter intention in English Canada, and the Bloc threatens the Liberals in Quebec. We have never seen the level of vitriol directed at our unpopular PM with trucks bearing the f____ Trudeau often seen and shouting crowds dogging his appearances, to the extent his public plans are kept secret until the last moment. This is unprecedented.


Now, with regular Conservative non-confidence motions being proposed, it seems only a matter of time before we have an earlier election than expected, when the NDP had an agreement not to defeat the government. Captain Trudeau will then sink with the Liberal ship, which has hit a rock and is going down, unwilling to make the big changes which alone might revive their fortunes. Also there will unlikely be time for him to gracefully bow out and for the Liberals to elect a new leader. In any case, as one former speechwriter of his said, he could hear him saying “we’re not

changing course at the 11 th hour just because of some really bad polls.”


So, one likely result is that Trudeau resigns only after a defeat at the polls, and a subsequent convention produces a new leader who does not wear the defeat. This is probably more desirable for rebuilding the Liberal brand than having a new leader coming out of a bad electoral defeat. But what kind of a political situation under Poliviere with a weakened Liberal opposition can we expect? The major issues that beset Canada are unlikely to go away. If, as the conservatives constantly claim, all Canada’s woes land at the door of Trudeau, will getting rid of him miraculously turn things

around? Come on.


“Axe the carbon tax” is the rallying cry for an election, with it being claimed that its further imposition will cause an economic “nuclear winter”. Getting rid of it will not solve anything but will make Canada look like a climate-change chump in the eyes on many of our allies. “Axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime and bring it home” are the “common sense” slogans he will operate on. Closer to an election – which could be a few weeks away – we are promised some meat on these bare bones. Nothing yet.


We remain an embarrassment to NATO in staying so far from our commitments at a time when the war in Ukraine’s stalemate haunts us all. We have no clear idea whether a Conservative government would invest more in defense beyond his office saying they would “work toward” meeting the NATO commitment. So, the damage to our international reputation will continue for many years.


As will our inability to meet the huge increase in demand for housing. CHMC estimates that nearly 3.5 million homes need to be added between 2021 and and 2031. Dream on.  Desjardins’ economists concluded in a recent paper that the “fire hose” of Liberal government measures to boost home-building will not really have a major impact on the supply of homes – and therefore home prices – for three or four years. “What Canadians

want are policies that will increase incomes or make it easier to buy a home”, Greg Lyle president of Innovative Research Group recently told the CBC. “None of those things get solved in four months or maybe even four years.” A CIBC report released last spring found 76 per cent of Canadians who aren’t homeowners feel entry into the housing market is out of reach. A grim outlook, for young people especially. Poliviere announced his plan to increase housing last fall by making cities responsible for increasing the number of homes built by 15 per cent each year — a rate that he said might alleviate the housing crunch. Local governments that failed to meet that target would see their federal grants withheld. The plan

was immediately slammed by Canada’s mayors.


Meanwhile new housing starts have slowed despite new government funding. In spite of Canada's growing population, the CMHC confirmed that housing starts decreased by 9 per cent in June, 2024. On top of this, when compared to June of 2023, housing starts last month had decreased by 13 percent. Lower supply for higher demand. Not good. As for affordable housing the 2023 budget failed to address a crisis that is leading to more homelessness than Canadian communities have ever experienced.


There is little good news when we look at Canada’s overall economic prospects. Our low productivity has been called an “emergency” by the Bank of Canada. According to the latest data available from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Canada ranks 29 th among 38 OECD countries in labor productivity. despite being one of the best countries in the world to live in. Canada's workforce is among the most educated in the world but quarterly data published by StatsCan in June 2024 confirms Canadian workers are continuing to underperform compared to our neighbors to the south. "If we don't address productivity and start doing it very quickly ...our living standards — in relative terms to some of the more successful countries in the world — will continue to decline," Derek Holt, vice president and head of capital markets

economics at Scotiabank told CBC recently. Lower productivity also diminishes Canada's competitiveness and makes it more difficult to bring inflation under control, "because essentially workers are getting paid more for producing less," he said. So far no federal party has seen fit to address this basic issue facing the Canadian economy.


A polarized disputatious country with little ability to solve our most serious economic issues in the medium term. Unhappy days ahead indeed.


Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

A New Canada to Fight for Our Survival

By Patrick Gossage • December 29, 2025
There has been nothing like the mobilization of our country since we went to war against Hitler “for King and Country.” Now we are mobilizing in a new war against Trump’s depredations with renewed patriotic fervour. Our building a resilient sovereignty against the word’s most irrational and powerful regime - who believe we have no right to exist - will require an enormous dedicated and concentrated effort to redefine our nation. . Make no mistake. We are not seen as important in Washington, a lesson I learned as the Minister of Information at our embassy in the Reagan years. Like Trump’s disparaging attitude to Justin Trudeau, Reagan had little use for his crusading father, Pierre Ytudeau. The difference is that with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney r Reagan actually became a key figure in establishing the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed in 1988. Ironically, it is precisely the success of this pact that led to 75% of our trade going to the US, a dangerous dependence which is now under extreme threat. The future of the successor to the FTA is at dtake. The US Canada Mexico Agreement (USMCA) is about to be renegotiated and is by no means secure. Bilateral trade discussions on the sectorial tariffs that are destroying our steel, automobile, aluminum and lumber industries were going well but were cancelled on October 23 after Trump, in a fit of pique was annoyed by Ontario TV ads using a Reagan clip to decry tariffs. Prime Minister Carney clings to the hope that these issues will be addressed in the context of the USMCA talks. They are supposed to begin in January. We live in hope. Make no mistake. Trump recently suggested that USMCA’s future was not certain. His strong belief that Canada would be better as a US state _ “and there would be no tariffs” – seems unshakeable. Perhaps the most striking evidence of what low repute Canada is held in the White House comes from Vice President Vance. He has publicly criticized Canada's our generous immigration policies, blaming them for the country's "stagnating" living standards and referring to our approach as "immigration insanity". Vance pointed to a chart from IceCap Asset Management showing that Canada's GDP per capita growth has fallen behind that of the U.S. and the U.K. in recent years. He argues this stagnation is a direct result of Canada's approach to immigration and not U.S. trade policies. He specifically targeted Canada's multiculturalism model, contrasting it with the U.S. "melting pot". Vance claimed that "no nation has leaned more into 'diversity is our strength’... immigration insanity “ than Canada". The White House recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) which also note how immigrants can destroy our democracies. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist signaled this: “It cites activities by our sister European democracies that “undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence. “‘Should present trends continue,” it goes on, “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.” These views are totally inimical to Canadian values.  As is this, Trump’s most outrageous recent anti- immigrant outburst as reported by NBC : “For a second day in a row, President Donald Trump launched into a hate-filled rant against Somalia and Somali immigrants living in the US, saying they’ve “destroyed Minnesota” and “our country.” Minnesota, Trump said, is “a hellhole” right now. “The Somalians should be out of here. They’ve destroyed our country.“ The NSC also can affect Canada in its focus on the Western hemisphere. an area to be dominated by US interests. The US will secure critical supply chains in its own interests; and insists on the right of the US to have access to “strategically important locations.” The US National Security Council is to identify strategic points and resources in the Western hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners. Obviously, Canada as a source of critical minerals, will be under US scrutiny. Some observers fear that Trump wants Canada to become a “vassal state”. A December Toronto Star editorial states coldly that “Thanks to Donald Trump, we know that nothing about our country is guaranteed anymore, not our sovereignty, our democracy, our prosperity.” We now know the Canadian policies standing in the way of a new USMCA agreement. US Trade representative Jamieson Greer said our online Streaming Act, which will make profitable US streaming services support Canadian programming is a major irritant as is our sacrosanct supply management regime for dairy and poultry products. These both are very difficult bargaining chips for Canada to play. Trump’s love affair with tariffs is unlikely to subside so Canadian products may continue to be frozen out of the US. Prime Minister Carney’s ambitious strategy of finding alternate markets for these may work. And his new policy framework for rebuilding a successful economy, major infrastructure projects and attracting important foreign investment is a significant redefinition of our national political priorities. He enjoys wide public support for his strategy which also receives good business and media support. There is already some optimism about the economy in 2026 - take Bank of Montreal’s recent outlook paper: “We’re looking for a stronger economy in 2026 than 2025. Consumer spending has helped prop up the economy. The “Buy Canadian” campaign has helped, and more people are travelling closer to home. Also, there’s no question that federal government spending has also supported economic growth. As we move into the latter part of the year—boosted by firmer economic growth and lower population growth—we expect the unemployment rate to fall in the second half. “Canada’s position in the trade dispute isn’t as bad as it appeared earlier in the year. The average Us tariff rate on imports of Canadian goods is between 6% and 7%, compared to the 17% rate the U.S. charges the rest of the world on average. (these rates are goods under the existing CUSMA) Sectorial tariffs are heavily focused on certain targeted industries, such as steel and aluminum, lumber, and auto imports and non-USMCA auto parts. These are important sectors, but they represent a relatively narrow slice of the economy. “ In addition there is good news on the overall trade front. Canada’s trade swung to a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September 2025 from a C$6.3 billion deficit the month before and well above expectations for a C$4.5 billion deficit, Exports rose 6.3 C$ 64.231 billion, the largest monthly increase since February. Nine of 11 product sections posted gains. Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports jumped 22.7% driven by a 30.2% surge in unwrought gold; aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 23.4% and crude oil exports climbed 5.8%. We just may have a more resilient economy than we thought. Nevertheless, we cannot count on Trump agreeing to a new trade regime that is as good as the original NAFTA – and the cost of reducing tariffs on key sectors may be too high, Trump’s love for tariffs and distain for us won’t change. We can only hope that a smart, well connected and determined Prime Minister can rebuild an economy that will be immune to the vagaries of our neighbour.

Immigration – Too much of a Good Thing

By Patrick Gossage • September 17, 2025
Welcoming newcomers, especially those fleeing wars, has been a widely accepted Canadian virtue. Now, after 25 years of a very open door. there is increasing evidence that we have too much of a good thing. And admittedly, it has been pre-PM Carney Liberal policies which have us in this situation. Where we are now was exemplified by PM Carney recently at the caucus retreat in Edmonton where said recent levels have not been "sustainable" and a more "focused" approach is required. "It's clear that we must improve our overall immigration policies," he said. It had been easy to be caught up in Justin Trudeau’s unabashed enthusiasm for high immigration levels exemplified by his warm personal welcome of the first Syrian refugees in December, 2015. On the fifth anniversary of his memorable event he happily announced: “In the years since, the Government of Canada has worked closely with Canadians, the business community, and civil society to resettle nearly 73,000 Syrian refugees in more than 350 communities across the country.” Few questioned our generosity and thousands of ordinary Canadians sponsored families. But opening our doors wide soon got out of control. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or almost one-quarter (23.0%) of the population, were, or had been, a landed immigrant. Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, representing the highest annual population growth rate since the post-war boom of 1957. Immigration now accounts for virtually all of Canada’s net labour force growth. It then became of public concern that temporary residents, including record numbers of temporary workers and foreign students accounted for 3 million of that number. In total, since 2015 we admitted 15 million temporary foreign workers in agriculture, hospitality and some manufacturing and processing jobs. They were seen to be exploited with lower wages and few rights. Foreign students with limits on hours they could work swelled these huge numbers. Inevitably, public support for high immigration levels dramatically flipped, where 58% of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. An Environics Poll in 2024 showed that f or the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year . Canadians’ express concerns about the arrival of so many newcomers contributing to the country’s problems with housing availability and affordability; this view is much more prominent than a year ago. Immigrants placing pressure on public finances, taking jobs from other Canadians, over-population, and insufficient screening are less prominent. Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The new Carney government took action, gradually reducing permanent resident admissions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027; introducing caps for temporary residents, including students and workers at 673,650 in 2025, a notable decrease in new international student admissions with only 163,000 new study permits projected for early 2025. This has led to serious financial shortfalls in many post-secondary institutions. There will be a decline in the overall Canadian population in 2025 and 2026 due to the projected outflows of temporary residents.The number of new temporary residents arriving in the country — made up of international students, foreign workers and refugee claimants — declined in the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period last year. These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system. In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750. Accommodating the needs of refugees for resettlement and shelter has become a major issue and embarrassment. In the summer of 2023 many asylum seekers in Toronto ended up sleeping on the street. What a way to welcome them to Canada! Since September 2021, the number of refugee claimants housed in Toronto shelters has increased more than tenfold, from 530 per night to a peak of almost 6,500 per night by August 2024. Recently there were about 3,500 refugee claimants in the system, about 40 per cent of all clients. The mayor recently wrote a letter warning that Carney’s government had agreed to cover only 26 per cent of Toronto’s estimated costs for housing asylum seekers in its shelter system this year. Refugees are a federal responsibility, yet reduction in federal support leaves the municipality $107 million short. We still welcome asylum claimants unreservedly. From January-June 2015 over 57,000. The leader of the Official Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, is now determined to make immigration a major political issue. He is calling for a tougher stance, saying he wants to see "very hard caps" on the number of newcomers allowed into the country. Poilievre says the country has struggled to integrate newcomers and he wants to see more people leaving than coming in "while we catch up." "We have millions of people whose permits will expire over the next couple of years, and many of them will leave," he said. "We need more people leaving than coming for the next couple of years. He would scrap the Temporary Foreign workers program altogether. BC Premier David Eby also calls for the end of Canada's temporary foreign worker program — blaming Ottawa's flawed immigration policies for filling up homeless shelters and food banks. "The temporary foreign worker program is not working. It should be cancelled or significantly reformed," Eby said. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can't have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,“ Despite these concerns, there is a bedrock of strong support for immigration which was manifested recently in Torontonians where over 150 teachers,.labour union members and families organized a noisy counter demonstration against about 50 right wing flag waving Canada Fist anti-immigrant demonstrators. They chanted “there is no space for hate at Christie Pits”, the site of the clash which led to many arrests. Torontonians enjoy the benefits of living, the world’s most multicultural city with its amazing variety of foods and cultures, and daily evidence from immigrants that their children are doing very well, thank you. But we await the end of the hopelessness that is apparently part of the lives of so many new arrivals, particularly refugees, and the needless exploitation of many other newcomers in menial and low paying jobs..
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