Fighting Trump’s Alternate Reality

Patrick Gossage • May 17, 2025

The last weeks have shown that there are a few leaders who can stand up to Trump’s destructive world views. One leader with huge international clout and the other who is important to the survival of Canada. There is also a rejuvenated Cabinet in Ottawa that will hopefully lead the defense and rebuilding of Canada.

The new Pope Leo with his words of inclusion and love starkly contrast with Trump’s message of exclusion and revenge. Michael Higgins, a Toronto Catholic theologian put it this way in the Globe: “By choosing an American with international exposure, a refined social justice sensitivity, the priorities of Francis regarding…inequality, global migration and the evils of ethno- nationalism, the cardinals have set up on the Tiber an antidote to the insularity and intolerance on the Potomac.” The President is anxious to meet him, but he has been critical of Trump’s deportation policies and is unlikely to moderate his criticisms in such a meeting.


Important to our survival as a sovereign nation is having a leader who can not only stand up to Trump but gain his respect. This occurred to almost universal praise from all sides in the first meeting of Prime Minister Carney with the President on May 6, 2025. A question about Canada becoming the 51st state in a Carney’s first White House meeting prompted a lengthy Trump answer underling how better Canada would be as a state and his usual musings on the “artificial” Canada/US border. Carney listened patiently then delivered his well-rehearsed repost: “If I may," Carney said, "as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale.”


"That's true," Trump said, seemingly charmed by Carney's appeal to his previous career. Carney continued: "And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign, the last several months, it's not for sale, won't be for sale ever." Trump replied, “Never say never”. Amid the noisy cacophony of questions that followed, you could see Carney say “never” five times. This has become the most quoted exchange from the meeting by far. A brilliant foray from a very well-prepared Carney. He had the words to flatter and yet be very firm.


Trudeau had much earlier warned to take Trump’s 51st state musings seriously saying Trump wanted “to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us.” These warnings were repeated often by Carney in the election campaign. 


Trump’s expansionist dreams which include “strategic” Greenland were described in the New York Times by eminent columnist David French: “In foreign policy, his actions appear…to be a revival of Manifest Destiny, the belief that God had destined the United States to spread across the continental United States and the rest of North America, and the Monroe Doctrine, a declaration to the European powers that the United States was the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere.”


Later in the Oval office circus, Trump repeated his catalogue of objections to an independent Canada he made at length a few days before the meeting: “Canada only works as a state. We don’t need anything they have. As a state, it would be one of the great states anywhere. This would be the most incredible country, visually. If you look at a map, they drew an artificial line right through it, between Canada and the U.S. Just a straight, artificial line. Somebody did it a long time ago, many many decades ago. Makes no sense. It’s so perfect as a great and cherished state.""But why should we subsidize another country for $200 billion?" Trump continued, adding, "And again, we don’t need their lumber, we don’t need their energy. We have more than they do. We don’t need anything. We don’t need their cars. I’d much rather make cars here. And there’s not a thing that we need. Now, there will be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long. But they need us. We really don’t need them. And we have to do this. I’m sorry." This is his credo on us. And it’s etched in his mind. Carney had to repeat in the private part of the meeting that it would never happen. Yet the private meeting was “constructive”, and there is no doubt that Trump respects Carney even if his basic views on us gave not changed. 


Carney’s detailed plan to build up our economy relatively free of reliance on the US market is now a challenging alternative should negotiations to end tariffs fail. It could be the only way we can prosper given Trump’s entrenched view that we shouldn’t even exist as an independent nation. There will be more meetings, but we must be prepared for them to fail. In this critical match we must build our own strength to take on the world superpower. And hope Trump’s exaggerated ambitions are throttled by domestic backlash.

This is how Carney predicted facing the dying Canada-US relation in his acceptance speech at the Convention that made him PM:

“When I sit down with Donald Trump, it will be with the full knowledge that we have many many other options than the US to build prosperity for Canada.” He said that negotiations would be based on strength and the use of “overwhelming force”, a strategy he had used in other crisis situations. 


We saw a flash of this toughness in the last meeting. But if the next one hits a wall, we can expect him to take a more aggressive strategy as he indicated in that speech. We have the cards in energy and a determination to make it on our own. I think we’ll start to see them being played soon. 


The success of this strategy is now in the hands of a new cabinet with 14 old faces and 13 new. In Canada US relations, veteran Dominic Leblanc who has deep contacts in the White House since attending the original Mar del Lago dinner, is now in charge of the whole file and internal trade. Carney is determined to make Canada one economy not 13 and LeBlanc will a key role in that too. Melanie Jolie, also a White House vet, is off to Industry, replaced at Foreign Affairs by a novice in the file, the smart and reliable Anita Anand. New faces like Gary Anandasangaree as Minister of Public Safety responsible for the border, Rebecca Chartrand, Minister for the Artic (which Trump has his eye on) have to get up to speed quickly. David McGuinty, a veteran of the White House is now in charge of the very demanding National Defense portfolio due for massive increases in spending. 


For Plan B, the rebuilding of our economy into the “strongest economy in the G7” there is strength with ebullient Francois-Phillipe Champagne as Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freland at Transport and Internal Trade, Tim Hodgson a friend of Carney from Goldman Sachs and Finance at Energy, Jolie at Industry, and newcomers Lena Metlege Diab former Nova Scotia Minister of Immigration, Marjorie Michael, a Trudeau office veteran at Health and former Mayor of Vancouver Greg Robinson at Housing. 


If Carney keeps his promise to “empower” and not over-control them - as was the problem with the Trudeau PMO - and run a true “Cabinet government,” this is the group that must execute the urgent program Carney envisions. It will depend on him and the way he inspires and motivates a real sense of teamwork in his grand plan to transform our economy.

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Immigration – Too much of a Good Thing

By Patrick Gossage • September 17, 2025
Welcoming newcomers, especially those fleeing wars, has been a widely accepted Canadian virtue. Now, after 25 years of a very open door. there is increasing evidence that we have too much of a good thing. And admittedly, it has been pre-PM Carney Liberal policies which have us in this situation. Where we are now was exemplified by PM Carney recently at the caucus retreat in Edmonton where said recent levels have not been "sustainable" and a more "focused" approach is required. "It's clear that we must improve our overall immigration policies," he said. It had been easy to be caught up in Justin Trudeau’s unabashed enthusiasm for high immigration levels exemplified by his warm personal welcome of the first Syrian refugees in December, 2015. On the fifth anniversary of his memorable event he happily announced: “In the years since, the Government of Canada has worked closely with Canadians, the business community, and civil society to resettle nearly 73,000 Syrian refugees in more than 350 communities across the country.” Few questioned our generosity and thousands of ordinary Canadians sponsored families. But opening our doors wide soon got out of control. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or almost one-quarter (23.0%) of the population, were, or had been, a landed immigrant. Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, representing the highest annual population growth rate since the post-war boom of 1957. Immigration now accounts for virtually all of Canada’s net labour force growth. It then became of public concern that temporary residents, including record numbers of temporary workers and foreign students accounted for 3 million of that number. In total, since 2015 we admitted 15 million temporary foreign workers in agriculture, hospitality and some manufacturing and processing jobs. They were seen to be exploited with lower wages and few rights. Foreign students with limits on hours they could work swelled these huge numbers. Inevitably, public support for high immigration levels dramatically flipped, where 58% of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. An Environics Poll in 2024 showed that f or the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year . Canadians’ express concerns about the arrival of so many newcomers contributing to the country’s problems with housing availability and affordability; this view is much more prominent than a year ago. Immigrants placing pressure on public finances, taking jobs from other Canadians, over-population, and insufficient screening are less prominent. Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The new Carney government took action, gradually reducing permanent resident admissions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027; introducing caps for temporary residents, including students and workers at 673,650 in 2025, a notable decrease in new international student admissions with only 163,000 new study permits projected for early 2025. This has led to serious financial shortfalls in many post-secondary institutions. There will be a decline in the overall Canadian population in 2025 and 2026 due to the projected outflows of temporary residents.The number of new temporary residents arriving in the country — made up of international students, foreign workers and refugee claimants — declined in the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period last year. These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system. In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750. Accommodating the needs of refugees for resettlement and shelter has become a major issue and embarrassment. In the summer of 2023 many asylum seekers in Toronto ended up sleeping on the street. What a way to welcome them to Canada! Since September 2021, the number of refugee claimants housed in Toronto shelters has increased more than tenfold, from 530 per night to a peak of almost 6,500 per night by August 2024. Recently there were about 3,500 refugee claimants in the system, about 40 per cent of all clients. The mayor recently wrote a letter warning that Carney’s government had agreed to cover only 26 per cent of Toronto’s estimated costs for housing asylum seekers in its shelter system this year. Refugees are a federal responsibility, yet reduction in federal support leaves the municipality $107 million short. We still welcome asylum claimants unreservedly. From January-June 2015 over 57,000. The leader of the Official Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, is now determined to make immigration a major political issue. He is calling for a tougher stance, saying he wants to see "very hard caps" on the number of newcomers allowed into the country. Poilievre says the country has struggled to integrate newcomers and he wants to see more people leaving than coming in "while we catch up." "We have millions of people whose permits will expire over the next couple of years, and many of them will leave," he said. "We need more people leaving than coming for the next couple of years. He would scrap the Temporary Foreign workers program altogether. BC Premier David Eby also calls for the end of Canada's temporary foreign worker program — blaming Ottawa's flawed immigration policies for filling up homeless shelters and food banks. "The temporary foreign worker program is not working. It should be cancelled or significantly reformed," Eby said. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can't have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,“ Despite these concerns, there is a bedrock of strong support for immigration which was manifested recently in Torontonians where over 150 teachers,.labour union members and families organized a noisy counter demonstration against about 50 right wing flag waving Canada Fist anti-immigrant demonstrators. They chanted “there is no space for hate at Christie Pits”, the site of the clash which led to many arrests. Torontonians enjoy the benefits of living, the world’s most multicultural city with its amazing variety of foods and cultures, and daily evidence from immigrants that their children are doing very well, thank you. But we await the end of the hopelessness that is apparently part of the lives of so many new arrivals, particularly refugees, and the needless exploitation of many other newcomers in menial and low paying jobs..

Deciphering the Canada/US tariff wars

By Patrick Gossage • August 12, 2025
1. Negatives - The sad truth about missing the August 1 deadline: Trump on July 31, 2025: ”We haven’t spoken to Canada today. He’s called.” Carney could not get through! Obviously, the President of Mexico did and got a 90 day reprieve. He may speak with Carney this week but clearly the PM’s relationship isn’t what we thought. Trump:: ”(Canda} has been very poorly led….Canda has treated US farmers “very badly” (our apparently untouchable dairy and poultry supply management regime remains a major irritant.). He still believes there is a “huge flow of fentanyl from Canada to the US that has to be stopped.” Trump said earlier he hasn’t “had “a lot of luck with Canada,” and reaching a deal wasn’t a priority for his administration. In addition, Trump intensified his trade war with Canada with A35% tariff just ahead of the August 1 deadline for an agreement, saying it would be "very hard" to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood. “ Ford among others has called all along for a tougher approach and dollar for dollar reciprocal tariffs on US goods coming to Canda – which the White House dislikes claiming only Canada and China are imposing these tariffs. A recent Angus Reid poll suggests the proportion of those advising the PM and his team to “play hardball” has increased, from 63 to 69 per cent of the population compared to mid-July. Recently Carney has prepared us to accept there will be no deal without tariffs. In March he predicted “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back,” On August 5 he said the focus now will be to preserve and reinforce CUSMA ahead of next year’s negotiations, adding “There’s a bigger picture there. Sounds like buying time? One journalist’s – Matt Guerny’sjudgment on Carney’s performance: “…the central conceit of the federal election three months ago was that we faced an unprecedented crisis requiring an unprecedented response…The Liberals made the case — and voters agreed — that Carney was the man to lead Canada’s emergency effort….But I will blame Carney for not doing the things that he can do, as fast as he can do them, and that very much includes moving fast enough to harden this country so that we can better withstand geopolitical and economic threats … threats like an erratic and unpredictable U.S. president.”. 2. Positives Government’s plan B: Carney - “Canada, we are in charge of our future. We can build a strong economy that doesn't depend on the United States. We can be masters in our own house.” Bill C5 envisions huge national infrastructure projects: “It’s time to unite this country and invest in nation-building infrastructure on a scale not seen in generations. Major nation-building projects will connect Canada and grow the economy in ways that last for generations, such as the Port of Churchill, hydrogen production in Edmonton, seizing vast solar potential in Cowessess, high-speed rail that starts with Windsor to Québec City, and a trade corridor to Grays Bay in Nunavut, amongst others.” However, we are still wiring for a major project to be green lit under the Build Canada Act. 50% Steel and Aluminum tariffs backfiring: GM and Ford announced billion-dollar losses and Ford’s best-selling aluminum body F150 pickup severely affected by aluminum tariffs. This noted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent: “We will be negotiating with Canada on those.” Canadians deciding to not travel to US -and US alcohol being taken off Liquor Board shelves in provinces (except Sask and Alberta having an impact. This is "worse than tariffs", the boss of Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman says. Statistics Canada reporting a "steep decline" in Canadian travel to the U.S., particularly by land, and a -notable, drop in air travel. Big US coverage of impact on business in affected states. Leverage of Canadian rare earths and energy: Canada is a major energy exporter to the United States, particularly for oil, natural gas, and electricity. Canada supplies a significant portion of the US's crude oil, natural gas, and electricity imports. Specifically, Canada provides 60% of the crude oil and close to 100% of the natural gas imported by the U.S. Additionally, Canada supplies 85% of the electricity imported by the U.S. Canadian reciprocal counter tariffs: On March 3 2025 Trudeau announced a slew of retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and other goods entering Canada: Outlining the tiny amounts of Fentanyl crossing the border and investments in enhancing border security, he added : “Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered. Should American tariffs come into effect tonight, Canada will, effective tomorrow, respond with 25 per cent tariffs against $155 billion of American goods – starting with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days’ time. Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn.” August 4 th Carney said he may consider removing some. They have had an immediate impact on Canadian households. Tariffs hitting US consumers Proctor and Gamble announced last week it would raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods. Other manufacturers, from Porsche to Nestle to Adidas have announced the same thing. As have Walmart and Amazon which has raised prices on over 1200 items. Andrew Coyne on one sector Trump cannot control: “The Markets may be nevertheless prove to be Mr. Trump’s most implacable opponents.”
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