Fighting Trump’s Alternate Reality

Patrick Gossage • May 17, 2025

The last weeks have shown that there are a few leaders who can stand up to Trump’s destructive world views. One leader with huge international clout and the other who is important to the survival of Canada. There is also a rejuvenated Cabinet in Ottawa that will hopefully lead the defense and rebuilding of Canada.

The new Pope Leo with his words of inclusion and love starkly contrast with Trump’s message of exclusion and revenge. Michael Higgins, a Toronto Catholic theologian put it this way in the Globe: “By choosing an American with international exposure, a refined social justice sensitivity, the priorities of Francis regarding…inequality, global migration and the evils of ethno- nationalism, the cardinals have set up on the Tiber an antidote to the insularity and intolerance on the Potomac.” The President is anxious to meet him, but he has been critical of Trump’s deportation policies and is unlikely to moderate his criticisms in such a meeting.


Important to our survival as a sovereign nation is having a leader who can not only stand up to Trump but gain his respect. This occurred to almost universal praise from all sides in the first meeting of Prime Minister Carney with the President on May 6, 2025. A question about Canada becoming the 51st state in a Carney’s first White House meeting prompted a lengthy Trump answer underling how better Canada would be as a state and his usual musings on the “artificial” Canada/US border. Carney listened patiently then delivered his well-rehearsed repost: “If I may," Carney said, "as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale.”


"That's true," Trump said, seemingly charmed by Carney's appeal to his previous career. Carney continued: "And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign, the last several months, it's not for sale, won't be for sale ever." Trump replied, “Never say never”. Amid the noisy cacophony of questions that followed, you could see Carney say “never” five times. This has become the most quoted exchange from the meeting by far. A brilliant foray from a very well-prepared Carney. He had the words to flatter and yet be very firm.


Trudeau had much earlier warned to take Trump’s 51st state musings seriously saying Trump wanted “to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us.” These warnings were repeated often by Carney in the election campaign. 


Trump’s expansionist dreams which include “strategic” Greenland were described in the New York Times by eminent columnist David French: “In foreign policy, his actions appear…to be a revival of Manifest Destiny, the belief that God had destined the United States to spread across the continental United States and the rest of North America, and the Monroe Doctrine, a declaration to the European powers that the United States was the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere.”


Later in the Oval office circus, Trump repeated his catalogue of objections to an independent Canada he made at length a few days before the meeting: “Canada only works as a state. We don’t need anything they have. As a state, it would be one of the great states anywhere. This would be the most incredible country, visually. If you look at a map, they drew an artificial line right through it, between Canada and the U.S. Just a straight, artificial line. Somebody did it a long time ago, many many decades ago. Makes no sense. It’s so perfect as a great and cherished state.""But why should we subsidize another country for $200 billion?" Trump continued, adding, "And again, we don’t need their lumber, we don’t need their energy. We have more than they do. We don’t need anything. We don’t need their cars. I’d much rather make cars here. And there’s not a thing that we need. Now, there will be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long. But they need us. We really don’t need them. And we have to do this. I’m sorry." This is his credo on us. And it’s etched in his mind. Carney had to repeat in the private part of the meeting that it would never happen. Yet the private meeting was “constructive”, and there is no doubt that Trump respects Carney even if his basic views on us gave not changed. 


Carney’s detailed plan to build up our economy relatively free of reliance on the US market is now a challenging alternative should negotiations to end tariffs fail. It could be the only way we can prosper given Trump’s entrenched view that we shouldn’t even exist as an independent nation. There will be more meetings, but we must be prepared for them to fail. In this critical match we must build our own strength to take on the world superpower. And hope Trump’s exaggerated ambitions are throttled by domestic backlash.

This is how Carney predicted facing the dying Canada-US relation in his acceptance speech at the Convention that made him PM:

“When I sit down with Donald Trump, it will be with the full knowledge that we have many many other options than the US to build prosperity for Canada.” He said that negotiations would be based on strength and the use of “overwhelming force”, a strategy he had used in other crisis situations. 


We saw a flash of this toughness in the last meeting. But if the next one hits a wall, we can expect him to take a more aggressive strategy as he indicated in that speech. We have the cards in energy and a determination to make it on our own. I think we’ll start to see them being played soon. 


The success of this strategy is now in the hands of a new cabinet with 14 old faces and 13 new. In Canada US relations, veteran Dominic Leblanc who has deep contacts in the White House since attending the original Mar del Lago dinner, is now in charge of the whole file and internal trade. Carney is determined to make Canada one economy not 13 and LeBlanc will a key role in that too. Melanie Jolie, also a White House vet, is off to Industry, replaced at Foreign Affairs by a novice in the file, the smart and reliable Anita Anand. New faces like Gary Anandasangaree as Minister of Public Safety responsible for the border, Rebecca Chartrand, Minister for the Artic (which Trump has his eye on) have to get up to speed quickly. David McGuinty, a veteran of the White House is now in charge of the very demanding National Defense portfolio due for massive increases in spending. 


For Plan B, the rebuilding of our economy into the “strongest economy in the G7” there is strength with ebullient Francois-Phillipe Champagne as Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freland at Transport and Internal Trade, Tim Hodgson a friend of Carney from Goldman Sachs and Finance at Energy, Jolie at Industry, and newcomers Lena Metlege Diab former Nova Scotia Minister of Immigration, Marjorie Michael, a Trudeau office veteran at Health and former Mayor of Vancouver Greg Robinson at Housing. 


If Carney keeps his promise to “empower” and not over-control them - as was the problem with the Trudeau PMO - and run a true “Cabinet government,” this is the group that must execute the urgent program Carney envisions. It will depend on him and the way he inspires and motivates a real sense of teamwork in his grand plan to transform our economy.

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Two Opposites – Mark Carney and Donald Trump

By Patrick Gossage • March 12, 2026
One of the major differences between these two men is that Carney understands the value of well-thought-out strategy, abundantly clear in his Davos speech, which laid out one for middle powers to deal with the end of a rules-based international order and the rise of hegemony. Trump's lack of strategic understanding is clear in his bumbling attempts to justify the billion-dollar-a-day Iran war. His overall tactic of “flooding the zone” – mounting a new initiative or major announcement every day, or even several times a day to ensure press and opposition can never catch up. This tactic has served him well – confusing the world and his would-be opponents into submission under a valley of activity and harsh opinions from the leader of the world. Contrast this approach to leadership from Carney. He is systematically building a nation less dependent on US trade by travelling the world building new alliances and trading partners. And in the scare of Australia giving substance to his idea of alliances with middle powers. All laid out in the Davos speech. It is instructive to appreciate how much Trump was irritated by the Davos speech. Carney got a standing ovation; Trump’s rambling lengthy diatribe did not. He won’t soon forget being so upstaged. He surely recognized an intellectual power he could never match. Carney is a realist and pragmatic when he stated recently “We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.” He is dealing with the world that is being reshaped by an irrational power-mad president, a world the powerful Stephen Miller said “that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world.” Does Carney sometimes err on the side of supporting Trump likely to ensure that critical talks on free trade and tariffs have some chance of finding a sympathetic ear? Yes; first he seemed to fully support Trump’s war with Iran. He later made his support more nuanced, saying Trump’s actions were against the rules-based international order. He now says we will not get involved unless a NATO ally is threatened. But generally, Carney is highly rational in contrast to Trump’s self-centered irrationality. Take Trump’s bizarre ill-informed letter to the Prime Minister of Norway, who had no role in deciding if he got the Nobel Peace Prize: “I no longer feel obligated to think purely of Peace (he subsequently engaged in an ever expanding war against Iran). He then reiterated his demand for “complete and Total Control, of Greenland. Thank you!”. His late-night rants, complete with caps, on social media show a mind out of control. Thay are dutifully reported on US news media and often astonish with their non sequiturs and nastiness. One of his more unpresidential quotes came as he fingered White House drapes: “I chose these myself. I always liked gold." The big question for Canadians who are more and more disillusioned with the antics of the President: could these two opposite ever sit down and do a deal that works for Canada. The two do text, and Carney has admitted that in private Trump does listen. But there is also evidence that the trade people in the White House do not like Canada, and as Trump has said, we owe our very existence to the US. And we are “difficult”. They have said that the current trade deal is not good for the US and could be trashed entirely and -deals with Mexico and Canada could be separate and the current trilateral deal may be dead.  Canada was at the brink of reducing the heavy sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber when Premier Ford’s unfortunate ads during the Rose Bowl that featured President Reagan speaking against the usefulness of Tariffs led To Trump suspending talks. They only recently resumed. So can our world-renowned businessman and banker hope to sit down with the unpredictable and unstable President and cut a deal? Some hope that if we extend talks, the President, weakened by the midterms, the bad economic fallout from an unpopular war, and the fragmentation of the MAGA movement may be easier to deal with. On the other hand he may badly need a “win,” bullying big concessions out of Canada and reaping so-cabled benefits from a weaker free trade deal. There is a scenario where Trump gets a black eye if Carney simply walks away with the conviction, perhaps easily shared with an increasingly nationalistic and confident Canada that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” In any case, what a decisive and challenging future we face with Canada at play. Can Carney win for Canada against his opposite by losing a deal?"

A New Canada to Fight for Our Survival

By Patrick Gossage • December 29, 2025
There has been nothing like the mobilization of our country since we went to war against Hitler “for King and Country.” Now we are mobilizing in a new war against Trump’s depredations with renewed patriotic fervour. Our building a resilient sovereignty against the word’s most irrational and powerful regime - who believe we have no right to exist - will require an enormous dedicated and concentrated effort to redefine our nation. . Make no mistake. We are not seen as important in Washington, a lesson I learned as the Minister of Information at our embassy in the Reagan years. Like Trump’s disparaging attitude to Justin Trudeau, Reagan had little use for his crusading father, Pierre Ytudeau. The difference is that with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney r Reagan actually became a key figure in establishing the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed in 1988. Ironically, it is precisely the success of this pact that led to 75% of our trade going to the US, a dangerous dependence which is now under extreme threat. The future of the successor to the FTA is at dtake. The US Canada Mexico Agreement (USMCA) is about to be renegotiated and is by no means secure. Bilateral trade discussions on the sectorial tariffs that are destroying our steel, automobile, aluminum and lumber industries were going well but were cancelled on October 23 after Trump, in a fit of pique was annoyed by Ontario TV ads using a Reagan clip to decry tariffs. Prime Minister Carney clings to the hope that these issues will be addressed in the context of the USMCA talks. They are supposed to begin in January. We live in hope. Make no mistake. Trump recently suggested that USMCA’s future was not certain. His strong belief that Canada would be better as a US state _ “and there would be no tariffs” – seems unshakeable. Perhaps the most striking evidence of what low repute Canada is held in the White House comes from Vice President Vance. He has publicly criticized Canada's our generous immigration policies, blaming them for the country's "stagnating" living standards and referring to our approach as "immigration insanity". Vance pointed to a chart from IceCap Asset Management showing that Canada's GDP per capita growth has fallen behind that of the U.S. and the U.K. in recent years. He argues this stagnation is a direct result of Canada's approach to immigration and not U.S. trade policies. He specifically targeted Canada's multiculturalism model, contrasting it with the U.S. "melting pot". Vance claimed that "no nation has leaned more into 'diversity is our strength’... immigration insanity “ than Canada". The White House recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) which also note how immigrants can destroy our democracies. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist signaled this: “It cites activities by our sister European democracies that “undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence. “‘Should present trends continue,” it goes on, “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.” These views are totally inimical to Canadian values.  As is this, Trump’s most outrageous recent anti- immigrant outburst as reported by NBC : “For a second day in a row, President Donald Trump launched into a hate-filled rant against Somalia and Somali immigrants living in the US, saying they’ve “destroyed Minnesota” and “our country.” Minnesota, Trump said, is “a hellhole” right now. “The Somalians should be out of here. They’ve destroyed our country.“ The NSC also can affect Canada in its focus on the Western hemisphere. an area to be dominated by US interests. The US will secure critical supply chains in its own interests; and insists on the right of the US to have access to “strategically important locations.” The US National Security Council is to identify strategic points and resources in the Western hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners. Obviously, Canada as a source of critical minerals, will be under US scrutiny. Some observers fear that Trump wants Canada to become a “vassal state”. A December Toronto Star editorial states coldly that “Thanks to Donald Trump, we know that nothing about our country is guaranteed anymore, not our sovereignty, our democracy, our prosperity.” We now know the Canadian policies standing in the way of a new USMCA agreement. US Trade representative Jamieson Greer said our online Streaming Act, which will make profitable US streaming services support Canadian programming is a major irritant as is our sacrosanct supply management regime for dairy and poultry products. These both are very difficult bargaining chips for Canada to play. Trump’s love affair with tariffs is unlikely to subside so Canadian products may continue to be frozen out of the US. Prime Minister Carney’s ambitious strategy of finding alternate markets for these may work. And his new policy framework for rebuilding a successful economy, major infrastructure projects and attracting important foreign investment is a significant redefinition of our national political priorities. He enjoys wide public support for his strategy which also receives good business and media support. There is already some optimism about the economy in 2026 - take Bank of Montreal’s recent outlook paper: “We’re looking for a stronger economy in 2026 than 2025. Consumer spending has helped prop up the economy. The “Buy Canadian” campaign has helped, and more people are travelling closer to home. Also, there’s no question that federal government spending has also supported economic growth. As we move into the latter part of the year—boosted by firmer economic growth and lower population growth—we expect the unemployment rate to fall in the second half. “Canada’s position in the trade dispute isn’t as bad as it appeared earlier in the year. The average Us tariff rate on imports of Canadian goods is between 6% and 7%, compared to the 17% rate the U.S. charges the rest of the world on average. (these rates are goods under the existing CUSMA) Sectorial tariffs are heavily focused on certain targeted industries, such as steel and aluminum, lumber, and auto imports and non-USMCA auto parts. These are important sectors, but they represent a relatively narrow slice of the economy. “ In addition there is good news on the overall trade front. Canada’s trade swung to a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September 2025 from a C$6.3 billion deficit the month before and well above expectations for a C$4.5 billion deficit, Exports rose 6.3 C$ 64.231 billion, the largest monthly increase since February. Nine of 11 product sections posted gains. Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports jumped 22.7% driven by a 30.2% surge in unwrought gold; aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 23.4% and crude oil exports climbed 5.8%. We just may have a more resilient economy than we thought. Nevertheless, we cannot count on Trump agreeing to a new trade regime that is as good as the original NAFTA – and the cost of reducing tariffs on key sectors may be too high, Trump’s love for tariffs and distain for us won’t change. We can only hope that a smart, well connected and determined Prime Minister can rebuild an economy that will be immune to the vagaries of our neighbour.
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