Is the Ukraine Situation Dire?

Putin's war machine seems bogged down, so he will resort to much more deadly forms of warfare (massive bombing, bombardments). Putin will get Belarus (perhaps) to invade Ukraine, thus enlarging the war. Putin already got from Belarus the ability to station nukes in Belarus. Sanctions this time have teeth and immediate effect (watch the ruble and the Russian economy). Putin will face increasing financial and possible social and political chaos inside Russia. Putin will clamp down in Russia - where and how will this end? The war risks spilling over as neighboring countries, Germany, France, and the EU, rightly, send weapons and financial aid to Ukraine. The war, ratcheting up, step by step, will edge - unless Putin backs down or wins a quick "victory" - towards a more general war in Europe. A more general war in Europe will ratchet up, given Putin's choices, towards the threat or reality of some sort of nuclear threat or exchange.  If Putin were a statesman, he would go for a cease-fire, and for a settlement (he will need something, a figleaf in return) but I doubt he has the strength of character or the political vision - or maybe the political capital - to overcome the momentum he has created. Even if he wanted to reverse course, he is now trapped by his past actions and his past rhetoric. So almost certainly - aside from a tiny, tiny, thin chance of a deal - Putin will ratchet up the brutality, massively. He thought this would be a "policing action", that is, he thought the forces he deployed could do it. He thought Ukraine would be a pushover, and he thought he could "decapitate" Ukrainian society - kill the government - but, it seems - seems his army is not up to it. It is clear Ukrainian resistance is much more determined and skillful and widespread than he expected, and it is clear too that "decapitating" the political system will not work even if he were able to carry it off. Therefore, he will desperately strike out, with all means, in all directions. Russia will be a pariah as long as Putin is in charge, and Putin now is excluded from all those clubs he yearned to join. So far, in Russia, there appears to be no group or individual or mechanism that could overthrow Putin. The outlook is dire. 

Let’s hope he is wrong.