Let’s have a bit of modesty in Government’s ability to solve major problems

Patrick Gossage • June 16, 2023

There is a yearning in the hearts of Canadians that major issues  confronting us will find solutions in our lifetimes. We hope housing may be once again more affordable, food prices will come down,  indigenous peoples will be reconciled, and the world will reduce its carbon emissions so that extreme weather will cease to drench us or heat up our forests and feed wildfires.

Politicians certainly are attempting to tackle these problems, and must continue to, in a quest to make our lives better. You can’t tell a political leader that they actually may be unable to fix these huge problems. They have to continue to try. But it’s important to be realistic and ask if we have the resources in a faltering economy under the shadow of huge debt to succeed in launching a  new era of widely shared prosperity. But whatever the reality, the next election will certainly be fought on promises to achieve this kind of turnaround. 


Let’s take a hard look at the realities at achieving real solutions to these problems. 


Housing - Nobody doubts there is a crisis. In a recent Literary review of Canada article David Jones put it bluntly: “Canada has some of the highest housing prices, compared to income in the G7 and leading OECD countries. This has created an affordability crisis that has been negatively affecting the nation's quality of life and its most vulnerable households.”


Well, we have the Liberal’s National Housing Strategy (NHS). This is a sobering review of its performance from The Parliamentary Budget Office in 2022: NHS showed $37 billion in actual and planned budgetary expenditures over 10 years starting in 2018/19, compared to $75 billion in headline commitments. Only one-third ($25 billion) of the claimed $75 billion headline number represents new federal spending.

It is almost impossible to envision any policy which would see a supply of new, particularly affordable homes being built to satisfy the ballooning demands in any foreseeable future. CMHC posits this demand at 5.8 million housing units to restore housing affordability by the end of 2030. This is 3.5 million units over and above the current pace of new home construction.


Where are our welcomed one million immigrants every year going to live, you may well ask. Certainly, the professionals we are seeking, especially health care staff won’t be able to afford the much ballyhooed 1.5 million homes the Ontario provincial government promises to build. 

Claudie Hepburn of the Globe reported recently. “A Scotiabank Economics report showed two-thirds of immigrants arrive with university degrees, whereas only one-third of Canadians hold them. Yet two-thirds of native-born, university-educated Canadians are in jobs that require a degree, whereas only one-third of immigrants with degrees are in jobs that require one. In health care, the numbers are almost as bad: More than 60 percent of internationally trained doctors and nurses are not working in their profession.” So maybe we should moderate our hopes here.Already foreign trained professionals are living in  tents in Toronto.


Food prices – an issue which parliamentarians in committee have gamely tried to address with little success. This may be one of those intractable post pandemic trends.


Listen to this expert: Mike Von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, said “the committee's questioning of grocery executives amounted to political theatre”. I think there's almost no evidence that the grocers are taking excessive margins right now," he said. "It's easy to blame the grocers because that's where we're feeling the pinch." Trying to solve this one is not a political winner and prices would best be left to the marketplace.


Will there be any major breakthroughs in our relationships with an increasingly demanding and powerful indigenous population? I suggest if we look at the action taken on the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission changes are many years from coming. 

Eight years after the tabling of the recommendations, AFN National Chief RoseAnne Archibald has said that, “if we were in a chapter of a book on reconciliation — we are, today, on the first sentence of that book.” At the rate the government is acting we are estimated to be 42 years from completing action on all recommendations.


In addition and not much talked about a truly material change in the relationship would involve the oft-repeated reference by indigenous peoples to the Royal Proclamation of 1763 which remains for them the official recognition of Indigenous self-government. To really implement what indigenous people want in this regard would mean major changes or even the end of the Indian Act. This kind of radical change is not a vote getter. Unlikely to happen. But our indigenous brethren will continue to  \win the PR battle with governments. 


So the final big problem we are all focused on is climate change. Will leaders respond to Greta Thunberg’s  pleading to take the issue seriously? Will Canada  achieve net zero by 2050. And will the world meet the Paris Agreement’s target of less that 1.5 degree increase in temperature and net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the same periods? So far there is little evidence that either Canada or the Agreement’s signatories will reach those goals. We have to keep trying however.


A new report by the University of Oxford says that we could blow well past the 1.5 degree goal in a decade and that the achievement of Paris goals in carbon reduction of capture will be extremely difficult to meet. As for Canada’s ambitious net zero goal, the Climate Action Tracker reports: “The government’s own Environment Commissioner released a damning report in November 2021 outlining 30 years of the government’s failure to meet its targets and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” One only has to look at the Alberta Government’s and the oil patch’s reluctance to address its major contribution to Canadian emissions to know how challenging future adherence to national climate goals will be. 


My advice to political leaders. It would be truly amazing if leaders showed a little modesty when making promises to solve these major problems I have analyzed. Perhaps it’s time to tell Canadians that they simply may have to get used to reduced expectations, and adopt a more modest and realistic approach to what governments can accomplish in improving citizen’s lives and the world’s climate. However, it’s not in the nature of politics to play down what can at least be hoped for. Speeches trumpeting efforts and new policies to tackle these problems will continue. Count on it.

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Immigration – Too much of a Good Thing

By Patrick Gossage • September 17, 2025
Welcoming newcomers, especially those fleeing wars, has been a widely accepted Canadian virtue. Now, after 25 years of a very open door. there is increasing evidence that we have too much of a good thing. And admittedly, it has been pre-PM Carney Liberal policies which have us in this situation. Where we are now was exemplified by PM Carney recently at the caucus retreat in Edmonton where said recent levels have not been "sustainable" and a more "focused" approach is required. "It's clear that we must improve our overall immigration policies," he said. It had been easy to be caught up in Justin Trudeau’s unabashed enthusiasm for high immigration levels exemplified by his warm personal welcome of the first Syrian refugees in December, 2015. On the fifth anniversary of his memorable event he happily announced: “In the years since, the Government of Canada has worked closely with Canadians, the business community, and civil society to resettle nearly 73,000 Syrian refugees in more than 350 communities across the country.” Few questioned our generosity and thousands of ordinary Canadians sponsored families. But opening our doors wide soon got out of control. In 2021, more than 8.3 million people, or almost one-quarter (23.0%) of the population, were, or had been, a landed immigrant. Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, representing the highest annual population growth rate since the post-war boom of 1957. Immigration now accounts for virtually all of Canada’s net labour force growth. It then became of public concern that temporary residents, including record numbers of temporary workers and foreign students accounted for 3 million of that number. In total, since 2015 we admitted 15 million temporary foreign workers in agriculture, hospitality and some manufacturing and processing jobs. They were seen to be exploited with lower wages and few rights. Foreign students with limits on hours they could work swelled these huge numbers. Inevitably, public support for high immigration levels dramatically flipped, where 58% of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. An Environics Poll in 2024 showed that f or the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year . Canadians’ express concerns about the arrival of so many newcomers contributing to the country’s problems with housing availability and affordability; this view is much more prominent than a year ago. Immigrants placing pressure on public finances, taking jobs from other Canadians, over-population, and insufficient screening are less prominent. Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The new Carney government took action, gradually reducing permanent resident admissions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027; introducing caps for temporary residents, including students and workers at 673,650 in 2025, a notable decrease in new international student admissions with only 163,000 new study permits projected for early 2025. This has led to serious financial shortfalls in many post-secondary institutions. There will be a decline in the overall Canadian population in 2025 and 2026 due to the projected outflows of temporary residents.The number of new temporary residents arriving in the country — made up of international students, foreign workers and refugee claimants — declined in the first six months of 2025, compared to the same period last year. These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system. In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750. Accommodating the needs of refugees for resettlement and shelter has become a major issue and embarrassment. In the summer of 2023 many asylum seekers in Toronto ended up sleeping on the street. What a way to welcome them to Canada! Since September 2021, the number of refugee claimants housed in Toronto shelters has increased more than tenfold, from 530 per night to a peak of almost 6,500 per night by August 2024. Recently there were about 3,500 refugee claimants in the system, about 40 per cent of all clients. The mayor recently wrote a letter warning that Carney’s government had agreed to cover only 26 per cent of Toronto’s estimated costs for housing asylum seekers in its shelter system this year. Refugees are a federal responsibility, yet reduction in federal support leaves the municipality $107 million short. We still welcome asylum claimants unreservedly. From January-June 2015 over 57,000. The leader of the Official Opposition, Pierre Poilievre, is now determined to make immigration a major political issue. He is calling for a tougher stance, saying he wants to see "very hard caps" on the number of newcomers allowed into the country. Poilievre says the country has struggled to integrate newcomers and he wants to see more people leaving than coming in "while we catch up." "We have millions of people whose permits will expire over the next couple of years, and many of them will leave," he said. "We need more people leaving than coming for the next couple of years. He would scrap the Temporary Foreign workers program altogether. BC Premier David Eby also calls for the end of Canada's temporary foreign worker program — blaming Ottawa's flawed immigration policies for filling up homeless shelters and food banks. "The temporary foreign worker program is not working. It should be cancelled or significantly reformed," Eby said. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing. And we can't have an immigration program that results in high youth unemployment,“ Despite these concerns, there is a bedrock of strong support for immigration which was manifested recently in Torontonians where over 150 teachers,.labour union members and families organized a noisy counter demonstration against about 50 right wing flag waving Canada Fist anti-immigrant demonstrators. They chanted “there is no space for hate at Christie Pits”, the site of the clash which led to many arrests. Torontonians enjoy the benefits of living, the world’s most multicultural city with its amazing variety of foods and cultures, and daily evidence from immigrants that their children are doing very well, thank you. But we await the end of the hopelessness that is apparently part of the lives of so many new arrivals, particularly refugees, and the needless exploitation of many other newcomers in menial and low paying jobs..

Deciphering the Canada/US tariff wars

By Patrick Gossage • August 12, 2025
1. Negatives - The sad truth about missing the August 1 deadline: Trump on July 31, 2025: ”We haven’t spoken to Canada today. He’s called.” Carney could not get through! Obviously, the President of Mexico did and got a 90 day reprieve. He may speak with Carney this week but clearly the PM’s relationship isn’t what we thought. Trump:: ”(Canda} has been very poorly led….Canda has treated US farmers “very badly” (our apparently untouchable dairy and poultry supply management regime remains a major irritant.). He still believes there is a “huge flow of fentanyl from Canada to the US that has to be stopped.” Trump said earlier he hasn’t “had “a lot of luck with Canada,” and reaching a deal wasn’t a priority for his administration. In addition, Trump intensified his trade war with Canada with A35% tariff just ahead of the August 1 deadline for an agreement, saying it would be "very hard" to make a deal with Canada after it gave its support to Palestinian statehood. “ Ford among others has called all along for a tougher approach and dollar for dollar reciprocal tariffs on US goods coming to Canda – which the White House dislikes claiming only Canada and China are imposing these tariffs. A recent Angus Reid poll suggests the proportion of those advising the PM and his team to “play hardball” has increased, from 63 to 69 per cent of the population compared to mid-July. Recently Carney has prepared us to accept there will be no deal without tariffs. In March he predicted “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that, with comprehensive negotiations, we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back,” On August 5 he said the focus now will be to preserve and reinforce CUSMA ahead of next year’s negotiations, adding “There’s a bigger picture there. Sounds like buying time? One journalist’s – Matt Guerny’sjudgment on Carney’s performance: “…the central conceit of the federal election three months ago was that we faced an unprecedented crisis requiring an unprecedented response…The Liberals made the case — and voters agreed — that Carney was the man to lead Canada’s emergency effort….But I will blame Carney for not doing the things that he can do, as fast as he can do them, and that very much includes moving fast enough to harden this country so that we can better withstand geopolitical and economic threats … threats like an erratic and unpredictable U.S. president.”. 2. Positives Government’s plan B: Carney - “Canada, we are in charge of our future. We can build a strong economy that doesn't depend on the United States. We can be masters in our own house.” Bill C5 envisions huge national infrastructure projects: “It’s time to unite this country and invest in nation-building infrastructure on a scale not seen in generations. Major nation-building projects will connect Canada and grow the economy in ways that last for generations, such as the Port of Churchill, hydrogen production in Edmonton, seizing vast solar potential in Cowessess, high-speed rail that starts with Windsor to Québec City, and a trade corridor to Grays Bay in Nunavut, amongst others.” However, we are still wiring for a major project to be green lit under the Build Canada Act. 50% Steel and Aluminum tariffs backfiring: GM and Ford announced billion-dollar losses and Ford’s best-selling aluminum body F150 pickup severely affected by aluminum tariffs. This noted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent: “We will be negotiating with Canada on those.” Canadians deciding to not travel to US -and US alcohol being taken off Liquor Board shelves in provinces (except Sask and Alberta having an impact. This is "worse than tariffs", the boss of Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman says. Statistics Canada reporting a "steep decline" in Canadian travel to the U.S., particularly by land, and a -notable, drop in air travel. Big US coverage of impact on business in affected states. Leverage of Canadian rare earths and energy: Canada is a major energy exporter to the United States, particularly for oil, natural gas, and electricity. Canada supplies a significant portion of the US's crude oil, natural gas, and electricity imports. Specifically, Canada provides 60% of the crude oil and close to 100% of the natural gas imported by the U.S. Additionally, Canada supplies 85% of the electricity imported by the U.S. Canadian reciprocal counter tariffs: On March 3 2025 Trudeau announced a slew of retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and other goods entering Canada: Outlining the tiny amounts of Fentanyl crossing the border and investments in enhancing border security, he added : “Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered. Should American tariffs come into effect tonight, Canada will, effective tomorrow, respond with 25 per cent tariffs against $155 billion of American goods – starting with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days’ time. Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn.” August 4 th Carney said he may consider removing some. They have had an immediate impact on Canadian households. Tariffs hitting US consumers Proctor and Gamble announced last week it would raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods. Other manufacturers, from Porsche to Nestle to Adidas have announced the same thing. As have Walmart and Amazon which has raised prices on over 1200 items. Andrew Coyne on one sector Trump cannot control: “The Markets may be nevertheless prove to be Mr. Trump’s most implacable opponents.”
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