More and More Canadians Struggling to Get By

Patrick Gossage • October 16, 2023

You know that the number of Canadians crushed by rising costs is becoming a national crisis when both military families and auto workers complain of living pay cheque to pay cheque, and when 40 percent of post-secondary graduates are leaving high-cost Toronto in large numbers because they can’t afford to live there. The phenomenon of the graduate living in his or her parent’s basement because they can’t afford rent is used regularly by the federal opposition to shame the federal government who are finally trying to do something about unaffordability that affects nearly everyone.

Unaffected of course are the wealthiest households (top 20 percent) who account for more than two-thirds (67.9 percent) of net worth at the end of 2022. These are the corporate titans who are the constant butt of the NDP who continue to call for a wealth tax to even out glaring inequality. It was interesting to hear UNIFOR auto workers leadership and strikers refer to the huge salaries of automobile executives as a reason to give workers more. And up to present the union has been successful in bringing workers back to middle class wages. 


The huge profits of the major grocery chains and the over generous salaries of their executives has been a recurring theme in recent federal politics. And recently a large survey on grocery buying habits in a high price scenario has nearly half sacrificing nutritional value for price. Sixty-three percent are “worried that compromising on nutrition due to high prices may have adverse long-term effects of their health”. This is a shocking finding indeed. 


Canadians appear to be sacrificing a lot of extras to keep their mortgages out of arrears as many monthly payments have doubled with rising interest rates. Power of sale rates in Toronto are up marginally. But both renters and mortgage holders are struggling to meet higher costs. One Angus Reid survey showed that a year ago last June one-in-five (19 percent) renters reported it was very difficult to meet rising costs, now one-quarter (24 percent) say the same. The proportion of homeowners who find their mortgage difficult to manage has risen from one-third (34 percent) to 45 percent! 


As costs of basics have risen, many Canadians have used credit to keep up. Overall consumer debt has hit a record high in Canada, and any further rate increases from the Bank of Canada would put pressure on Canadians holding credit card balances and other loans. Already, one-quarter (26 percent) say their debt is a major source of stress for them. Two-in-five (42 percent) worry about their debt in a more minor way. This figure is higher among mortgage holders who 30 percent say is a major source of stress.


The most recent Bank of Canada rate hike to 5 percent means more bad news according to a July Angus Reid survey: “Currently,  two-in-five (37 percent) mortgage holders are having a difficult time making their payments. Among this group, nine-in-ten say this latest rate increase will further exacerbate this. Further, among those who say their payments are currently “manageable”, a majority (60 percent) say that this decision will negatively affect their ability to keep payments in this comfortable zone going forward.

In October a Leger poll of young Canadians painted a bleak picture of their particular struggles. The situation is getting worse with each passing year: Generation Z (born 1997 onwards) and millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) lack confidence in the future,” the report stated. It found half of these young Canadians living pay cheque to pay cheque. The rising cost of living is pressing on young Canadians’ minds even more than last year: 48 percent said they feel the added costs on the regular payment of their credit card or bills, compared to 40 percent in 2022. Around 72 percent of renters said their rent takes up too much of their expenses and 81 percent said they’re renting because they’re “unable to buy property.” Another 67 percent said they don’t think they’ll be able to buy property in the next few years, with 68 percent of youth living with family stating the same.


Young people generally find themselves  completely priced out of homes in the GTA. Wages have remained relatively stagnant while house prices have doubled since the 1990’s. Rental prices have more than doubled in the same time period. A, one-bedroom units in Toronto are hitting the market for more than $2,600, while two-bedroom apartments command more than $3,400 and three-bedroom units cost about $3,800, according to a report by rentals.ca and Urbanation. As of September 23 the average annual salary in Toronto is $57,550, which works out to be approximately $27.67 an hour. This is equivalent to $1,106 a week or $4,795 a month. Is it any wonder that the city is simply unaffordable for so many. 

The affordability crisis may be most exaggerated in Toronto, but it is felt nationally. According to a survey conducted by Abacus Data in July, the rising cost of living is far and away the top concern for Canadians, while housing affordability now rivals health care as a priority. Recent data from Environics also shows that Canadians are markedly more worried about household debt than they were a decade ago — with the biggest spike in debt anxiety reported among those aged 18 to 44. 


In 2012, Justin Trudeau mused on a theme which helped carry him to victory three years later and is still a touchstone of Liberal strategy. "Those who think the middle class is thriving in this country should spend more time with their fellow citizens," Trudeau wrote in October 2012, shortly after launching his bid for the Liberal leadership. "[The] squeezing of the Canadian middle class does not need to be explained to those who live it every day." Clearly the kind of anxiety revealed is hardest on the so-called middle class who have the highest consumption rates most affected by rising prices. And at the lower end many still have mortgages. When Trudeau or ministers talk about the middle class and  “those working hard to join it” the slogane becomes more age inclusive   There is now a powerful Cabinet Committee chaired by the Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland which targets Canada’s principal ailments. It is a, “Ministerial Working Group on the Middle Class, Economy and Housing - Provides strategic leadership in considering measures to support the middle class and those working hard to join it, to make life more affordable, and to remove barriers to building more homes, faster to drive down the cost of housing”. An old wrapping for new critical problems. 


All this anxiety which more and more Canadians feel about the economy is a major challenge for the solution-minded Liberal team. The leader of the Opposition has many Canadians believing that unaffordability is all Trudeau’s doing with rising interest rates (not under the government’s control) and the Liberal gas tax. The die is cast for the next election for sure and the government will be survive or fall on how successfully it addresses what is a widespread and deeply felt economic crisis. 

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

Two Opposites – Mark Carney and Donald Trump

By Patrick Gossage • March 12, 2026
One of the major differences between these two men is that Carney understands the value of well-thought-out strategy, abundantly clear in his Davos speech, which laid out one for middle powers to deal with the end of a rules-based international order and the rise of hegemony. Trump's lack of strategic understanding is clear in his bumbling attempts to justify the billion-dollar-a-day Iran war. His overall tactic of “flooding the zone” – mounting a new initiative or major announcement every day, or even several times a day to ensure press and opposition can never catch up. This tactic has served him well – confusing the world and his would-be opponents into submission under a valley of activity and harsh opinions from the leader of the world. Contrast this approach to leadership from Carney. He is systematically building a nation less dependent on US trade by travelling the world building new alliances and trading partners. And in the scare of Australia giving substance to his idea of alliances with middle powers. All laid out in the Davos speech. It is instructive to appreciate how much Trump was irritated by the Davos speech. Carney got a standing ovation; Trump’s rambling lengthy diatribe did not. He won’t soon forget being so upstaged. He surely recognized an intellectual power he could never match. Carney is a realist and pragmatic when he stated recently “We take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.” He is dealing with the world that is being reshaped by an irrational power-mad president, a world the powerful Stephen Miller said “that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world.” Does Carney sometimes err on the side of supporting Trump likely to ensure that critical talks on free trade and tariffs have some chance of finding a sympathetic ear? Yes; first he seemed to fully support Trump’s war with Iran. He later made his support more nuanced, saying Trump’s actions were against the rules-based international order. He now says we will not get involved unless a NATO ally is threatened. But generally, Carney is highly rational in contrast to Trump’s self-centered irrationality. Take Trump’s bizarre ill-informed letter to the Prime Minister of Norway, who had no role in deciding if he got the Nobel Peace Prize: “I no longer feel obligated to think purely of Peace (he subsequently engaged in an ever expanding war against Iran). He then reiterated his demand for “complete and Total Control, of Greenland. Thank you!”. His late-night rants, complete with caps, on social media show a mind out of control. Thay are dutifully reported on US news media and often astonish with their non sequiturs and nastiness. One of his more unpresidential quotes came as he fingered White House drapes: “I chose these myself. I always liked gold." The big question for Canadians who are more and more disillusioned with the antics of the President: could these two opposite ever sit down and do a deal that works for Canada. The two do text, and Carney has admitted that in private Trump does listen. But there is also evidence that the trade people in the White House do not like Canada, and as Trump has said, we owe our very existence to the US. And we are “difficult”. They have said that the current trade deal is not good for the US and could be trashed entirely and -deals with Mexico and Canada could be separate and the current trilateral deal may be dead.  Canada was at the brink of reducing the heavy sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber when Premier Ford’s unfortunate ads during the Rose Bowl that featured President Reagan speaking against the usefulness of Tariffs led To Trump suspending talks. They only recently resumed. So can our world-renowned businessman and banker hope to sit down with the unpredictable and unstable President and cut a deal? Some hope that if we extend talks, the President, weakened by the midterms, the bad economic fallout from an unpopular war, and the fragmentation of the MAGA movement may be easier to deal with. On the other hand he may badly need a “win,” bullying big concessions out of Canada and reaping so-cabled benefits from a weaker free trade deal. There is a scenario where Trump gets a black eye if Carney simply walks away with the conviction, perhaps easily shared with an increasingly nationalistic and confident Canada that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” In any case, what a decisive and challenging future we face with Canada at play. Can Carney win for Canada against his opposite by losing a deal?"

A New Canada to Fight for Our Survival

By Patrick Gossage • December 29, 2025
There has been nothing like the mobilization of our country since we went to war against Hitler “for King and Country.” Now we are mobilizing in a new war against Trump’s depredations with renewed patriotic fervour. Our building a resilient sovereignty against the word’s most irrational and powerful regime - who believe we have no right to exist - will require an enormous dedicated and concentrated effort to redefine our nation. . Make no mistake. We are not seen as important in Washington, a lesson I learned as the Minister of Information at our embassy in the Reagan years. Like Trump’s disparaging attitude to Justin Trudeau, Reagan had little use for his crusading father, Pierre Ytudeau. The difference is that with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney r Reagan actually became a key figure in establishing the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed in 1988. Ironically, it is precisely the success of this pact that led to 75% of our trade going to the US, a dangerous dependence which is now under extreme threat. The future of the successor to the FTA is at dtake. The US Canada Mexico Agreement (USMCA) is about to be renegotiated and is by no means secure. Bilateral trade discussions on the sectorial tariffs that are destroying our steel, automobile, aluminum and lumber industries were going well but were cancelled on October 23 after Trump, in a fit of pique was annoyed by Ontario TV ads using a Reagan clip to decry tariffs. Prime Minister Carney clings to the hope that these issues will be addressed in the context of the USMCA talks. They are supposed to begin in January. We live in hope. Make no mistake. Trump recently suggested that USMCA’s future was not certain. His strong belief that Canada would be better as a US state _ “and there would be no tariffs” – seems unshakeable. Perhaps the most striking evidence of what low repute Canada is held in the White House comes from Vice President Vance. He has publicly criticized Canada's our generous immigration policies, blaming them for the country's "stagnating" living standards and referring to our approach as "immigration insanity". Vance pointed to a chart from IceCap Asset Management showing that Canada's GDP per capita growth has fallen behind that of the U.S. and the U.K. in recent years. He argues this stagnation is a direct result of Canada's approach to immigration and not U.S. trade policies. He specifically targeted Canada's multiculturalism model, contrasting it with the U.S. "melting pot". Vance claimed that "no nation has leaned more into 'diversity is our strength’... immigration insanity “ than Canada". The White House recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) which also note how immigrants can destroy our democracies. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist signaled this: “It cites activities by our sister European democracies that “undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence. “‘Should present trends continue,” it goes on, “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.” These views are totally inimical to Canadian values.  As is this, Trump’s most outrageous recent anti- immigrant outburst as reported by NBC : “For a second day in a row, President Donald Trump launched into a hate-filled rant against Somalia and Somali immigrants living in the US, saying they’ve “destroyed Minnesota” and “our country.” Minnesota, Trump said, is “a hellhole” right now. “The Somalians should be out of here. They’ve destroyed our country.“ The NSC also can affect Canada in its focus on the Western hemisphere. an area to be dominated by US interests. The US will secure critical supply chains in its own interests; and insists on the right of the US to have access to “strategically important locations.” The US National Security Council is to identify strategic points and resources in the Western hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners. Obviously, Canada as a source of critical minerals, will be under US scrutiny. Some observers fear that Trump wants Canada to become a “vassal state”. A December Toronto Star editorial states coldly that “Thanks to Donald Trump, we know that nothing about our country is guaranteed anymore, not our sovereignty, our democracy, our prosperity.” We now know the Canadian policies standing in the way of a new USMCA agreement. US Trade representative Jamieson Greer said our online Streaming Act, which will make profitable US streaming services support Canadian programming is a major irritant as is our sacrosanct supply management regime for dairy and poultry products. These both are very difficult bargaining chips for Canada to play. Trump’s love affair with tariffs is unlikely to subside so Canadian products may continue to be frozen out of the US. Prime Minister Carney’s ambitious strategy of finding alternate markets for these may work. And his new policy framework for rebuilding a successful economy, major infrastructure projects and attracting important foreign investment is a significant redefinition of our national political priorities. He enjoys wide public support for his strategy which also receives good business and media support. There is already some optimism about the economy in 2026 - take Bank of Montreal’s recent outlook paper: “We’re looking for a stronger economy in 2026 than 2025. Consumer spending has helped prop up the economy. The “Buy Canadian” campaign has helped, and more people are travelling closer to home. Also, there’s no question that federal government spending has also supported economic growth. As we move into the latter part of the year—boosted by firmer economic growth and lower population growth—we expect the unemployment rate to fall in the second half. “Canada’s position in the trade dispute isn’t as bad as it appeared earlier in the year. The average Us tariff rate on imports of Canadian goods is between 6% and 7%, compared to the 17% rate the U.S. charges the rest of the world on average. (these rates are goods under the existing CUSMA) Sectorial tariffs are heavily focused on certain targeted industries, such as steel and aluminum, lumber, and auto imports and non-USMCA auto parts. These are important sectors, but they represent a relatively narrow slice of the economy. “ In addition there is good news on the overall trade front. Canada’s trade swung to a surplus of C$0.15 billion in September 2025 from a C$6.3 billion deficit the month before and well above expectations for a C$4.5 billion deficit, Exports rose 6.3 C$ 64.231 billion, the largest monthly increase since February. Nine of 11 product sections posted gains. Metal and non-metallic mineral product exports jumped 22.7% driven by a 30.2% surge in unwrought gold; aircraft and other transportation equipment rose 23.4% and crude oil exports climbed 5.8%. We just may have a more resilient economy than we thought. Nevertheless, we cannot count on Trump agreeing to a new trade regime that is as good as the original NAFTA – and the cost of reducing tariffs on key sectors may be too high, Trump’s love for tariffs and distain for us won’t change. We can only hope that a smart, well connected and determined Prime Minister can rebuild an economy that will be immune to the vagaries of our neighbour.
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