Should He Stay or Should He Go? Justin Trudeau's Political Future

Patrick Gossage • May 3, 2023

Justin Trudeau faces two more years of tough sledding with every

week bringing a new reputational challenge.

Recently trying to live down the latest demeaning revelation - whether about his father’s foundation, admitting he will never meet the 2% NATO promise of military spending, or the looming necessity of addressing Chinese election and political interference. Add to this the unrelenting attacks by Pierre Poliviere who assigns blame directly to Trudeau for anything “broken” in Canada, neatly blasted out in well-produced videos and daily in the House at high volume. One pundit said Trudeau suffers from being the “overexposed lightning rod” for everything going wrong in this country.


The question for the next two years is how this negativity will weigh on the now 50-year-old leader and have him considering whether or not to run for a fourth term.


Coronation week has not only seen Charles III crowned but at the concurrent Liberal Convention Justin Trudeau won’t be re-crowned but there will not be a whisper of opposition to his ongoing expensive prosperity, sustainability and inclusionary agenda.


Not a sigh about the fact he is quoted as saying Canada will not meet its NATO military funding objectives and is unlikely to meet its ambitious net-zero emissions target by 2050.


Nor will there be much probing about leaving a popular Conservative MP Michael Chong uninformed when a leaked CSIS document showed his Hong Kong family targeted by the Chinese government. 


No, all is well in Liberal-land and the fact that defeated Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was interviewed by possible  Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland and other possibilities are relatively rookie Cabinet Ministers hardly constitutes a reason for Justin Trudeau to lose much sleep.


It has been said by every known pundit that the Liberal party is his party now. In his image and his values. He is still the best retail politician in Canada with (unlike his father) a genuine ability to connect to anyone. 


And yet he is more than aware of his unpopularity with a large segment of the population, growing out originally from his tough vaccine mandates, and intolerance for the Ottawa convoy and what it stood for. And he is officially reviled in Alberta and Saskatchewan.


My close female colleague did media relations through David  Peterson’s  1990 campaign in Ontario when he lost to the NDP. There were protests at nearly every stop, forcing Peterson to sneak in back doors and up service elevators. It was very stressful for her and police, and damaging to the campaign. On TV, the rowdy protesters made him look uncomfortable and unpopular – which he was.


Trudeau experienced the same challenges in the last campaign. Campaign planners were unable to publicize events to keep gangs from following the tour. The famous stone thrower is just now going to court. It is inevitable that he will face the same demonstrations whenever we go to the polls again. 


It is important to remember that politicians are human and much as leaders like the perks, the constant nastiness, attacks and criticisms do get to them. I was with his father when he resigned after the 1979 defeat. He actually teared up on the way to the press theater where he told the gallery that they would not have him to kick around anymore.


Justin’s family is still relatively young, his daughter is 14 and his younger son is 9. How many powerful leaders have I told to say they are retiring to spend more time with their family? It’s a tried and true line and you never know if a beleaguered Justin Trudeau may be tempted to use it one day. Particularly if he felt
he was the issue in ensuring a Liberal victory in the next election.


Yes - he has said he will stay and fight the next election, and no doubt relishes clobbering the outrageous Poliviere. The latter’s video collection of ridiculous outbursts will make amazing negative ads. But remember, no leader would make himself a lame duck by even hinting at thinking about retirement months and months before a possible election. 


I know it’s possible the “coalition “ with the NDP may break down forcing an earlier election than currently expected. In this case he would have no choice but to run.  But the expected election in October 2025 on the other hand does give Justin a chance to think of his future and perhaps take a walk in the snow like his dad that winter. Have he and his family had enough? That’s the question and while we don’t know we can speculate on conversations between Justin and his wife as the latest horror for him or his government breaks in the media, and Poliviere continues to blame all the country’s woes on him.

He does talk a good talk about long term goals which could take another term to see through. They rolled off his tongue with ease in a recent interview at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He said that despite the weight of uncertainty in the world, we were at an “inflection point’… there is a good path forward that can create good middle class jobs.” He used the VW battery plant as an example of how the strength of Canadian workers and  activist governments working together could  build a better future. 


We all yearn for the economy and our individual fortunes to turn around. They may slowly as we approach 2025. Can Justin and his government muster the industrial housing and health polices to give us hope? If he is sure he can, he will likely run again. He knows that the Canada we are looking at now is no legacy. 

Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

By Patrick Gossage July 7, 2025
When I was at university in the sixties, it was easy to love being Canadian. Patriotism was easy in the era of Pearson, peacekeeping and his Nobel Prize. He introduced defining landmark social programs like the Canada Pension Plan and universal health care. He also was crucial in launching the new Canadian flag, promoting bilingualism, and fostering a more inclusive immigration policy. His government got into the business of Canadian cultural promotion with the establishment of Telefilm Canada in 1967 to fund Canadian filmmakers. (The crown corporation, the National Film Board, was established in 1939.) The Pearson era went out with a proud Canadian bang at Expo67. Canada was prosperous, our identities, either largely British and French, were secure. The writer and philosopher George Grant, put it this way: “English speaking Canadians have been called a dull and costive lot. In these dynamic days, such qualities are particularly unattractive to the chic. Yet our stodginess has made us a society of greater simplicity, formality, and perhaps even innocence than the people to the south.” This is the society in which most anglo seniors today grew up. Not chic, looking with some envy at the glamour of Hollywood and Broadway, but modest and content. But the seeds of change were there. In Toronto. Italian and Portuguese laborers were being brought in to build subways and suburbs. Canada was about to add to the core French and English culture, and value assumptions far more diverse, and multicultural influences. Multiculturalism became official government policy in 1988. In his speech to the House of Commons, Trudeau stated that no singular culture could define Canada, and that the government accepted “the contention of other cultural communities that they, too, are essential elements in Canada.” A policy of multiculturalism was implemented to promote and respect cultural diversity, and to in fact fund ethnic efforts to preserve and develop their cultures within Canadian society, the opposite of the US “melting pot” objective. Section 27 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms officially recognizes multiculturalism as a Canadian value. In a 1971 speech in Winnipeg to a Ukrainian audience, Trudeau said: “What could be more absurd than the concept of an “all Canadian boy or girl! “ Trudeau greatly enlarged the makeup of the body of immigrants by expanding the ‘family class’. In 1978 immigration act changes allowed new Canadians to sponsor their parents of any age. Those from less-developed nations found this particularly appealing. Trudeau senior’s major accomplishment which ensured the protection of all minority rights was the repatriation of our constitution woth the Charter of Rights and Freedoms Now In Canada, approximately 23.0% of the population are first-generation immigrants, meaning they were born outside of Canada. This figure represents the highest proportion of immigrants in Canada in 150 years and is the highest among G7 countries. Over half of our population are either of English or French heritage. The torch of openness to refugees and immigrants and “diversity is our strength” has been taken up by Justin Trudeau in a big way. He told the New York Times Magazine in October 2014 that Canada could be the “first post national state”. He added: “There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada.” Many would argue that, yes, there is a core set of Canadian values. Often not recognized, they are regularly reflected in government policies. They set us apart from the United States, form part of our identity, and enrich our life experiences. Pearson and the Trudeaus have been instrumental in implementing Liberal values, ensuring equality of opportunity across the country and that no minority is trampled on. Foremost is universal publicly funded health care, whatever its problems. His son will be remembered for the Canadian Child benefit which today grants parents up to over $6,000 per child, which greatly reduced child poverty and $10 a day daycare. Justin Trudeau also launched publicly funded denticare and started a pharmacare program. Recipients of these programs obviously see them as essential parts of being Canadian. The generally shared values of Canadians include the importance of collective wellbeing, co-operation and social equality and a belief that active governments can improve our lives. Justin Trudeau’s self-declared “feminism” and his making cabinet one half women showed a dedication to equal rights for women which he tirelessly promoted. He was forever promoting the value of “diversity is our strength”. We genuinely welcome immigrants and show a high degree of tolerance for differences. Perhaps the best indication of this is the late seventies welcoming of over 60,000 Vietnamese boat people. As well, after 2015, over 44,000 government and privately sponsored Syrian refugees were settled and helped to establish themselves in Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau personally welcomed the first arrival in Toronto. While seemingly uncontrolled immigration of foreign students and refugees has become more controversial recently, it is accepted that we need immigrants, and the flow is now more rationally controlled. His father also ruled over a Canada that was very pro-Canadian and even anti American – not hard when the United States was immersed in the nightmare of Vietnam. He was well aware of the dangers signaled by George Grant in Lament for a Nation, which predicted the virtual integration of the Canadian and US economies. He established the Foreign Investment Review Agency to break the wholesale takeover of Canadian businesses by US firms. He established Petro Canada to get a window into the largely foreign owned oil and gas sector. And his government was very active in supporting and encouraging Canadian culture. The CRTC mandated Canadian content on our airwaves, spawning a healthy music industry. His son substantially increased funding for the public broadcaster CBC. Then in 1988 came a major shift in our identity and sovereignty. Prime Minister Mulroney wanted a free trade deal with the US and John Turner, the defeated Liberal leader, finally found his voice: “I will not let Brian Mulroney sell out our sovereignty. I will not let this great nation surrender its birthright. I will not let Brian Mulroney destroy a 120-year-old dream called Canada, and neither will Canadians”. But Turner lost, and a new deal sealed the situation we are in today with over 70% of our exports going stateside and Trump determined to wage economic warfare with a country he feels does not have a right to exist and should be the 51 st state: “Economically we have such power over Canada.” In fact, we have inadvertently given him “all the cards” as Trump likes to say. Turner might well say from the grave, “I told you so!” Sovereignty means more than building our own economy more independent of the United States. It means rebuilding the pride we have as Canadians and actually knowing and cherishing its values so different from those south of us. And this seems to be happening ironically, thanks to Trump’s trumpeting us as a 51 st state. Flags are everywhere and as we celebrate our 158 th birthday there is a new patriotism bursting out across the nation. The national anthem is being enthusiastically sung by audiences at all sorts of gatherings and performances. And worry as we may about the diverse cultures and beliefs of the hundreds and thousands of immigrant adults from every corner of the Globe, we know their children going to public schools will become knowledgeable, committed Canadians. There is a Canadian soul which will not be destroyed.
Doug Ford in a suit and tie is talking into a microphone
By Patrick Gossage June 11, 2025
Who is the is the real Doug Ford? Is it the smiling man walking beside Premier of Alberta Danielle Smith into the meeting of the Premiers with the PM intoning “love is in the air”(!) or the inept initiator of the Green Belt scandal which sold protected land to his developer friends – for which he apologized while reversing the order?
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