What if – Some Speculative Riffs on Canada – US

Patrick Gossage • April 7, 2025

Trump has upended decades of globalization and efforts to have freer trade among nations worldwide, slamming dozens of “friendly countries" with major tariffs of goods destined for the US. Canadian goods under the USMCA are exempted, but hugely damaging tariffs on Canada-made cars, aluminum and steel remain.

The hope that a new, civilized, even polite White House attitude to Canada, and their dropping references to us as the 51st state, might bode well for negotiations following the results of the federal election. In any case, in this chaotic situation a whole new raft of speculations are fair game.


For instance, what if the much touted new comprehensive economic and security agreement with Canada could be worked out with the US? Including a free trade in automobiles and the taking down of other tariffs? Not impossible - obviously costly in terms of a likely requirement to substantially increase defense spending (already being considered by both major parties). Limits imposed on US imports of dairy products have not been met – so we may be able to retain these controls - a major US irritant. We may have to swallow others. A noisy reaction to rising prices, and the predicted Democratic re-control of Congress after the 2026 midterms may usher in a more normal White House and make it easier to re-establish more positive and cordial relations with the US overall. What a dream!


The obverse of this is that Carney – assuming he wins- will not swallow the concessions Trump requires to take off tariffs and restore auto free trade. This roadblock would hit weeks into May when the full effects of auto tariffs and other tariffs throw Canada into a recession and effectively destroy our 100-year-old auto industry. The dollar tumbles further. Our patriotism is wearing thin, and Carney’s promise of a Canada strong will be slow in coming. The promise to find alternate export markets is not bearing fruit. Ford threatens to cut his electrical exports to the US. Alberta is urged to slow oil delivery. Huge unemployment. A pall hangs over the nation. Are we really at a dead end?


A third “what if” involves a real coalition of like-minded nations against Trump’s tariffs and threats against sovereign nations. This could take the form of major international meeting of heads of state with unanimous resolutions. It might involve the UN, and obviously the World Trade Organization, whose very reason for existence as a promoter of reducing barriers to trade is threatened. Interestingly, China’s President Xi recently gathered an impressive list of global CEO’s to discuss protecting supply chains and reacting to US tariffs. High-level international business diplomacy will undoubtedly be activated against Trump’s international tariffs. Canada is president of the G7 meeting in Kananaskis, Alberta, on June 17. Can they avoid isolating Trump in his demolition of the international trading order? Could be an important moment. Could it lead to a Trump backdown?


Canada could have an important role to play in the leaderships of an international movement even before the G7. It might just be effective after the midterms, could even lead to Trump’s becoming the laughingstock of the international community. An energized Europe, with a population bigger than the US, is key. A real Dream On? Maybe not.


There is a bit of sunshine for us in the huge 54-per-cent tariff being placed on Chinese imports to the US, as these goods will continue to enter Canada at a much lower rate. This means that Canadian Tire, for so much of its stock, and electronics stores like Best Buy will still sell much cheaper goods than available in the US. This is likely to create a boom in cross- border shopping in Canada for Americans.


Finally, and already visible in early signs, Congress may just start to fulfill its constitutional duty as a check to executive power. Again, particularly after the midterms, or even before. The dictatorial and authoritarian bent of the Trump administration is starting to arouse the basic fair-minded citizens of the US. Huge demonstrations in early April in all States may just be the beginning. Seeing students being arrested by black-hooded ICE agents, not charged and incarcerated with no due process to be deported is a blot on US democracy. US Congress people still rely on the popular vote of citizens who may distrust traditional media but still watch TV. They will also see prices of everyday goods going up. No new car this year.


As David Brooks wrote in the New York Times: “People will be outraged by the useless economic pain they (the tariffs) are causing and, more subtly, revolted by the cowardly values they represent.” And the fallacy of Trump’s actions is well expressed by Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times: “The president…is a careless person, smashing up things and creatures and leaving others, eventually, to clean up the mess that he has made.” American citizens are noticing this.


These historic days are just the start. A revolution is underway defining a new and dangerous role for the US in a world order he seems determined to destroy. Canada is no longer alone in baring the brunt of his disdain and economic warfare. There are dozens of nations considering how their economies will be damaged and how the world order is threatened. There will be strength in numbers.


Patrick Gossage Insider Political Views

By Patrick Gossage July 7, 2025
When I was at university in the sixties, it was easy to love being Canadian. Patriotism was easy in the era of Pearson, peacekeeping and his Nobel Prize. He introduced defining landmark social programs like the Canada Pension Plan and universal health care. He also was crucial in launching the new Canadian flag, promoting bilingualism, and fostering a more inclusive immigration policy. His government got into the business of Canadian cultural promotion with the establishment of Telefilm Canada in 1967 to fund Canadian filmmakers. (The crown corporation, the National Film Board, was established in 1939.) The Pearson era went out with a proud Canadian bang at Expo67. Canada was prosperous, our identities, either largely British and French, were secure. The writer and philosopher George Grant, put it this way: “English speaking Canadians have been called a dull and costive lot. In these dynamic days, such qualities are particularly unattractive to the chic. Yet our stodginess has made us a society of greater simplicity, formality, and perhaps even innocence than the people to the south.” This is the society in which most anglo seniors today grew up. Not chic, looking with some envy at the glamour of Hollywood and Broadway, but modest and content. But the seeds of change were there. In Toronto. Italian and Portuguese laborers were being brought in to build subways and suburbs. Canada was about to add to the core French and English culture, and value assumptions far more diverse, and multicultural influences. Multiculturalism became official government policy in 1988. In his speech to the House of Commons, Trudeau stated that no singular culture could define Canada, and that the government accepted “the contention of other cultural communities that they, too, are essential elements in Canada.” A policy of multiculturalism was implemented to promote and respect cultural diversity, and to in fact fund ethnic efforts to preserve and develop their cultures within Canadian society, the opposite of the US “melting pot” objective. Section 27 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms officially recognizes multiculturalism as a Canadian value. In a 1971 speech in Winnipeg to a Ukrainian audience, Trudeau said: “What could be more absurd than the concept of an “all Canadian boy or girl! “ Trudeau greatly enlarged the makeup of the body of immigrants by expanding the ‘family class’. In 1978 immigration act changes allowed new Canadians to sponsor their parents of any age. Those from less-developed nations found this particularly appealing. Trudeau senior’s major accomplishment which ensured the protection of all minority rights was the repatriation of our constitution woth the Charter of Rights and Freedoms Now In Canada, approximately 23.0% of the population are first-generation immigrants, meaning they were born outside of Canada. This figure represents the highest proportion of immigrants in Canada in 150 years and is the highest among G7 countries. Over half of our population are either of English or French heritage. The torch of openness to refugees and immigrants and “diversity is our strength” has been taken up by Justin Trudeau in a big way. He told the New York Times Magazine in October 2014 that Canada could be the “first post national state”. He added: “There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada.” Many would argue that, yes, there is a core set of Canadian values. Often not recognized, they are regularly reflected in government policies. They set us apart from the United States, form part of our identity, and enrich our life experiences. Pearson and the Trudeaus have been instrumental in implementing Liberal values, ensuring equality of opportunity across the country and that no minority is trampled on. Foremost is universal publicly funded health care, whatever its problems. His son will be remembered for the Canadian Child benefit which today grants parents up to over $6,000 per child, which greatly reduced child poverty and $10 a day daycare. Justin Trudeau also launched publicly funded denticare and started a pharmacare program. Recipients of these programs obviously see them as essential parts of being Canadian. The generally shared values of Canadians include the importance of collective wellbeing, co-operation and social equality and a belief that active governments can improve our lives. Justin Trudeau’s self-declared “feminism” and his making cabinet one half women showed a dedication to equal rights for women which he tirelessly promoted. He was forever promoting the value of “diversity is our strength”. We genuinely welcome immigrants and show a high degree of tolerance for differences. Perhaps the best indication of this is the late seventies welcoming of over 60,000 Vietnamese boat people. As well, after 2015, over 44,000 government and privately sponsored Syrian refugees were settled and helped to establish themselves in Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau personally welcomed the first arrival in Toronto. While seemingly uncontrolled immigration of foreign students and refugees has become more controversial recently, it is accepted that we need immigrants, and the flow is now more rationally controlled. His father also ruled over a Canada that was very pro-Canadian and even anti American – not hard when the United States was immersed in the nightmare of Vietnam. He was well aware of the dangers signaled by George Grant in Lament for a Nation, which predicted the virtual integration of the Canadian and US economies. He established the Foreign Investment Review Agency to break the wholesale takeover of Canadian businesses by US firms. He established Petro Canada to get a window into the largely foreign owned oil and gas sector. And his government was very active in supporting and encouraging Canadian culture. The CRTC mandated Canadian content on our airwaves, spawning a healthy music industry. His son substantially increased funding for the public broadcaster CBC. Then in 1988 came a major shift in our identity and sovereignty. Prime Minister Mulroney wanted a free trade deal with the US and John Turner, the defeated Liberal leader, finally found his voice: “I will not let Brian Mulroney sell out our sovereignty. I will not let this great nation surrender its birthright. I will not let Brian Mulroney destroy a 120-year-old dream called Canada, and neither will Canadians”. But Turner lost, and a new deal sealed the situation we are in today with over 70% of our exports going stateside and Trump determined to wage economic warfare with a country he feels does not have a right to exist and should be the 51 st state: “Economically we have such power over Canada.” In fact, we have inadvertently given him “all the cards” as Trump likes to say. Turner might well say from the grave, “I told you so!” Sovereignty means more than building our own economy more independent of the United States. It means rebuilding the pride we have as Canadians and actually knowing and cherishing its values so different from those south of us. And this seems to be happening ironically, thanks to Trump’s trumpeting us as a 51 st state. Flags are everywhere and as we celebrate our 158 th birthday there is a new patriotism bursting out across the nation. The national anthem is being enthusiastically sung by audiences at all sorts of gatherings and performances. And worry as we may about the diverse cultures and beliefs of the hundreds and thousands of immigrant adults from every corner of the Globe, we know their children going to public schools will become knowledgeable, committed Canadians. There is a Canadian soul which will not be destroyed.
Doug Ford in a suit and tie is talking into a microphone
By Patrick Gossage June 11, 2025
Who is the is the real Doug Ford? Is it the smiling man walking beside Premier of Alberta Danielle Smith into the meeting of the Premiers with the PM intoning “love is in the air”(!) or the inept initiator of the Green Belt scandal which sold protected land to his developer friends – for which he apologized while reversing the order?
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